Douglas burglary rose 86% against its multi-year baseline, the sharpest single-category move in Washington DC this briefing and the lead signal for the month. Other-larceny spikes in Walter Reed, Colonial Village, and Chevy Chase DC dominated the top of the rankings, but the Douglas burglary is the freshest signal and the one that breaks from the larceny pattern. Walter Reed other-larceny had topped the prior briefing's rankings; this month it steps back as backdrop.
Citywide volume is down 23.7% against the prior 12 months, 20,956 incidents against 27,470. The mix leans heavily toward sustained declines: 62 sustained-shift signals and 27 below-trend signals, against 4 spikes across 41 neighborhoods. North Cleveland Park also registered a streak-break in sexual assault, a category that had been quiet for an extended run and is now back above its prior pace.
The structural direction in Washington DC remains downward, and 62 sustained-shift signals in a single month is a strong reading in that direction. The other-larceny cluster across Walter Reed, Colonial Village, and Chevy Chase DC is new enough to watch but not yet a multi-month pattern. The Douglas burglary is the signal that stands apart, and October's briefing will indicate whether it is noise or the start of a sustained move.
Sustained drops worth naming
Homicide ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 38% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for August were issued from data through July 2026. 8 of 8 citywide bucket forecasts (100%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 95[65–126] | 98 | 3.3% | INSIDE |
| Burglary | 73[23–121] | 102 | 28.5% | INSIDE |
| Homicide | 11[3–18] | 9 | 18.1% | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 326[157–501] | 235 | 38.6% | INSIDE |
| Other Larceny | 1113[862–1373] | 1116 | 0.3% | INSIDE |
| Robbery | 123[26–213] | 119 | 3.2% | INSIDE |
| Sexual Assault | 12[2–21] | 7 | 69.6% | INSIDE |
| Theft from Vehicle | 439[224–629] | 490 | 10.4% | INSIDE |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “August 2026 — Washington DC,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /dc/2026/august