Douglas burglary is up 86% against its multi-year baseline, the strongest single-neighborhood signal this month and the fresh lead after several months dominated by larceny. Walter Reed other-larceny has been the persistent backdrop, the prior month's lead category, but this briefing pivots to a new bucket: burglary in Douglas is the move that stands out.
Citywide volume is down 24.0% against the prior 12 months, 20,888 incidents against 27,470 in the year before. That decline is the structural context for a month that still produced 4 spikes across 41 neighborhoods. Other-larceny spikes in Walter Reed, Colonial Village, and Chevy Chase DC all ranked in the top five, while North Cleveland Park registered a streak break in sexual assault.
The dominant picture remains a multi-year volume decline, now holding at 24.0% below the prior period. The other-larceny cluster across multiple neighborhoods is the pattern most worth watching into September: three separate neighborhoods moving in the same category in one month is a recurring shape, not a single-neighborhood story. The Douglas burglary spike is this month's sharpest move, but whether it extends is an open question the next briefing will answer.
Sustained drops worth naming
Homicide ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 38% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for August were issued from data through July 2026. 8 of 8 citywide bucket forecasts (100%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 95[65–126] | 96 | 1.2% | INSIDE |
| Burglary | 73[23–121] | 99 | 26.3% | INSIDE |
| Homicide | 11[3–18] | 9 | 18.1% | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 326[157–501] | 231 | 41.0% | INSIDE |
| Other Larceny | 1113[862–1373] | 1082 | 2.8% | INSIDE |
| Robbery | 123[26–213] | 119 | 3.2% | INSIDE |
| Sexual Assault | 12[2–21] | 6 | 97.8% | INSIDE |
| Theft from Vehicle | 439[224–629] | 483 | 9.1% | INSIDE |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “August 2026 — Washington DC,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /dc/2026/august