Walter Reed other larceny is up 354% against its multi-year baseline, the largest single-category move in Washington DC this month and the first time this neighborhood has topped the briefing rankings. Colonial Village registered the same category in the same direction, giving other larceny a notable two-neighborhood footprint in this briefing.
Citywide volume is down 20.4% against the prior 12 months, 21,185 incidents against 26,604. The signal mix skews heavily toward sustained declines: 58 sustained-shift signals and 25 below-trend signals across 41 neighborhoods, set against just 4 fresh spikes. Chevy Chase DC appears twice in the top five, motor vehicle theft and other larceny both moving up, while Petworth theft from vehicle ran in the opposite direction.
The two other-larceny spikes in Walter Reed and Colonial Village are the signals most worth tracking into October. The broader citywide picture remains a long decline: 89 total signals this month, with sustained downward shifts accounting for the majority. If the Walter Reed and Colonial Village moves hold next month, the category becomes a structural story; for now, this is a single-month read on an otherwise declining trend.
Sustained drops worth naming
Homicide ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 34% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for September were issued from data through August 2026. 7 of 8 citywide bucket forecasts (88%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 88[57–122] | 126 | 29.8% | MISS |
| Burglary | 67[19–115] | 62 | 8.5% | INSIDE |
| Homicide | 9[3–16] | 3 | 203.2% | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 282[109–453] | 300 | 6.1% | INSIDE |
| Other Larceny | 1113[805–1395] | 1030 | 8.1% | INSIDE |
| Robbery | 113[29–207] | 151 | 25.2% | INSIDE |
| Sexual Assault | 7[0–17] | 6 | 22.2% | INSIDE |
| Theft from Vehicle | 437[229–631] | 440 | 0.7% | INSIDE |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “September 2026 — Washington DC,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /dc/2026/september