Walter Reed other-larceny is the headline signal this month — the sharpest single-neighborhood move in Washington DC's July briefing. Colonial Village registered the same category in the same direction, making other-larceny the one fresh upward pattern in an otherwise down-trending picture. No prior month has carried this combination to the top of the rankings, so this is a genuinely new signal rather than a recurring one.
Citywide volume is down 25.6% against the prior 12 months — 20,769 incidents against 27,924 — a substantial reduction in overall activity. The signal mix reflects that: 61 sustained-shift signals and 30 below-trend signals dominate, against just 2 fresh spikes across 41 neighborhoods. Petworth theft-from-vehicle and Deanwood robbery both ran below trend, consistent with the broader decline.
The two other-larceny spikes in Walter Reed and Colonial Village are the main thing to track going forward. Everything else in the July mix points toward continued structural decline — 95 total signals, heavily weighted toward drops and sustained downward shifts. If the other-larceny pattern holds into August, it will be worth examining whether it reflects a category shift or a short-term cluster.
Sustained drops worth naming
Homicide ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 42% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for July were issued from data through June 2026. 7 of 8 citywide bucket forecasts (88%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 94[61–123] | 130 | 27.9% | MISS |
| Burglary | 74[28–119] | 68 | 9.2% | INSIDE |
| Homicide | 14[6–21] | 17 | 19.4% | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 342[178–513] | 200 | 71.0% | INSIDE |
| Other Larceny | 1100[821–1357] | 1056 | 4.2% | INSIDE |
| Robbery | 163[69–253] | 111 | 46.9% | INSIDE |
| Sexual Assault | 9[0–18] | 6 | 49.3% | INSIDE |
| Theft from Vehicle | 429[220–636] | 424 | 1.1% | INSIDE |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “July 2026 — Washington DC,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /dc/2026/july