Chevy Chase DC Crime Rate Trends — Washington DC
Chevy Chase DC is the upper-Northwest neighborhood along the Connecticut Avenue corridor up to the Maryland line, distinct from the Chevy Chase town across the border. The cluster also includes Hawthorne and Barnaby Woods to the east, two leafy pockets of single-family homes that step down toward Rock Creek Park.
April 2026 was a quiet month in Chevy Chase DC. The only tracked signal is a zero-event marker on homicide — a category that has registered no incidents in the current period. With total real signals at zero, no category crossed an anomaly threshold this month.
Across the three tracked property categories, volume is broadly flat. Theft from vehicle held nearly level at 126 incidents over the trailing 12 months, up 1.6% against the prior year. Other larceny edged down 6.8% year-over-year, from 88 to 82 incidents. Motor vehicle theft doubled — 26 incidents against 13 in the prior 12 months — but remains low enough in absolute terms that no anomaly threshold was crossed.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
How Chevy Chase DC compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month homicide volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable homicide levels.”
Dupont Circle
1 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Chevy Chase DC's 0.
Open page →Edgewood
1 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Chevy Chase DC's 0.
Open page →Fairfax Village
1 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Chevy Chase DC's 0.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Chevy Chase DC, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from DC Open Data — MPD's per-year Crime Incidents layers on the DCGIS ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 8 UCR Part 1 categories (vandalism and arson are not exposed in MPD's public feed and are excluded). The feed covers 2018-current and updates daily. Aggregated to neighborhood cluster × category × month, with each cluster page identified by its colloquial lead constituent (Adams Morgan, Petworth, Capitol Hill, etc.) rather than the numbered 'Cluster N' identifier.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.