North Cleveland Park Crime Rate Trends — Washington DC
North Cleveland Park is a mid-Northwest residential pocket along the Connecticut Avenue corridor, with its commercial life concentrated at the Van Ness Metro station to the south and Forest Hills' single-family streets to the east. The cluster shares the Connecticut Avenue spine with Forest Hills and Van Ness, three quiet residential neighborhoods that share a Metro and a school district but not a tight commercial center.
Two signals moved in North Cleveland Park in August 2026, one a structural shift and one a rare reappearance. A sexual assault streak break is the most distinctive event: a category that had been absent for an extended period surfaced again this month. Alongside it, other larceny registered as a sustained shift, meaning the change is structural across the trailing 12 months, not a single quiet month.
Other larceny is down 43.8% against the prior 12 months, 109 incidents vs 194 in the year before, a reduction spread across the full annual window rather than concentrated in one period. Theft from vehicle and motor vehicle theft are also running below prior-year levels, down 27.1% and 28.6% respectively. The broader property crime picture across North Cleveland Park is one of consistent multi-month declines; the sexual assault streak break is the signal that cuts against that pattern.
Notable signals 1
Sexual Assault
First incident since July 2024 — a 2-year gap ended this month.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 109, down 44% from 194 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
How North Cleveland Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month sexual assault volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable sexual assault levels.”
Barry Farm
1 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below North Cleveland Park's 1.
Open page →Fairfax Village
1 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below North Cleveland Park's 1.
Open page →Fort Stanton
1 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below North Cleveland Park's 1.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for North Cleveland Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from DC Open Data — MPD's per-year Crime Incidents layers on the DCGIS ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 8 UCR Part 1 categories (vandalism and arson are not exposed in MPD's public feed and are excluded). The feed covers 2018-current and updates daily. Aggregated to neighborhood cluster × category × month, with each cluster page identified by its colloquial lead constituent (Adams Morgan, Petworth, Capitol Hill, etc.) rather than the numbered 'Cluster N' identifier.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.