Walter Reed other-larceny is the lead signal for September 2025 — a sharp above-trend move that stands as the most statistically extreme shift in Washington DC this month. No demoted lead carries over from prior months; this is a fresh top-of-ranking result with no recurring backdrop to displace.
Citywide volume is down 9.9% against the prior 12 months, 26,605 incidents against 29,544. The signal mix tilts toward structural improvement: 38 sustained-shift signals and 20 below-trend signals against just 6 fresh spikes across 41 neighborhoods. The spikes that did surface are concentrated in larceny — Glover Park and Colonial Village both appear in the top five with other-larceny moves, while Eastland Gardens registered a theft-from-vehicle spike.
With 66 total signals and a 9.9% year-over-year decline, September continues a pattern of broad, sustained improvement rather than a single-category story. The other-larceny cluster across multiple neighborhoods — Walter Reed, Glover Park, Colonial Village, North Cleveland Park — is the one thread worth tracking into October to determine whether it reflects a shared cause or independent month-to-month variation.
Sustained drops worth naming
Homicide ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 26% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for September were issued from data through August 2025. 4 of 8 citywide bucket forecasts (50%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 82[55–108] | 82 | 0.3% | INSIDE |
| Burglary | 75[30–119] | 66 | 13.3% | INSIDE |
| Homicide | 15[8–22] | 4 | 277.4% | MISS |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 532[353–697] | 193 | 175.4% | MISS |
| Other Larceny | 1201[962–1451] | 1060 | 13.3% | INSIDE |
| Robbery | 193[101–291] | 93 | 107.9% | MISS |
| Sexual Assault | 9[0–19] | 14 | 36.0% | INSIDE |
| Theft from Vehicle | 604[428–791] | 378 | 59.8% | MISS |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “September 2025 — Washington DC,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /dc/2025/september