Glover Park Crime Rate Trends — Washington DC
Glover Park sits between Georgetown and the National Cathedral, with a compact Wisconsin Avenue commercial strip and rowhouse blocks rising up the hillside above the park itself. The cluster also covers Cathedral Heights to the north and McLean Gardens, a 1940s garden-apartment complex that fronts onto Wisconsin Avenue.
August 2026 was a quiet month for Glover Park. No tracked category crossed the anomaly threshold, and the signal count for the month is zero across all types, no spikes, no below-trend moves, no rare events, no structural breaks.
The 12-month picture carries more texture. Motor vehicle theft has run at 25 incidents against 12 in the prior year, up 108.3%, though volumes remain low in absolute terms. Robbery moved the other direction, 3 incidents against 7 in the prior year, down 57.1%. Theft from vehicle and other larceny both edged lower year-over-year, down 16.9% and 8.1% respectively, while aggravated assault rose 33.3% on small counts, 8 vs. 6. None of these shifts triggered a formal signal this month, but the motor vehicle theft trend is the one worth watching if it continues into September.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
How Glover Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Navy Yard
219 incidents over the past 12 months — 7 below Glover Park's 226.
Open page →Twining
208 incidents over the past 12 months — 18 below Glover Park's 226.
Open page →Friendship Heights
202 incidents over the past 12 months — 24 below Glover Park's 226.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Glover Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from DC Open Data — MPD's per-year Crime Incidents layers on the DCGIS ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 8 UCR Part 1 categories (vandalism and arson are not exposed in MPD's public feed and are excluded). The feed covers 2018-current and updates daily. Aggregated to neighborhood cluster × category × month, with each cluster page identified by its colloquial lead constituent (Adams Morgan, Petworth, Capitol Hill, etc.) rather than the numbered 'Cluster N' identifier.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.