Washington DC Crime Rate — October 2025

The month's sharpest signal is a theft-from-vehicle spike in Walter Reed — the most extreme single-category move in the Washington DC briefing this period. Walter Reed's other-larceny pattern was the citywide lead last month, but a new category is the headline now: theft from vehicle, not other larceny, is the fresh move. The prior bucket persists as background context; this one adds to it.

Citywide volume is down 12.2% against the prior 12 months — 25,627 incidents against 29,190. The signal mix is tilted toward structural rather than acute: 42 sustained-shift signals and 19 below-trend signals against 7 spikes, spread across 41 neighborhoods. Glover Park and North Cleveland Park both appear in the top five for other-larceny spikes, and Eastland Gardens registers a separate theft-from-vehicle signal — suggesting the category is moving across more than one pocket of the city.

The 71 total signals this month are broadly consistent with a city in a long-run volume decline, but the concentration of spikes in theft from vehicle and other larceny is worth tracking into November. Walter Reed appearing twice in the top five — for two distinct categories — is the most concrete signal that one neighborhood is carrying an outsized share of the upward pressure this period.

Sustained drops worth naming

Homicide ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 35% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.

How last month's forecasts performed

Forecasts for October were issued from data through September 2025. 4 of 8 citywide bucket forecasts (50%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.

Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.