Washington DC Crime Rate — August 2025

Walter Reed's theft-from-vehicle count is the sharpest single-neighborhood signal in Washington DC this month — a fresh spike with no prior-month recurrence at the top of the rankings. The same neighborhood also registered a spike in other larceny, making Walter Reed the focal point of August 2025's briefing across two distinct categories.

Citywide volume is down 7.1% against the prior 12 months — 27,470 incidents against 29,556. The signal mix leans toward sustained movement: 29 sustained-shift signals and 20 below-trend signals, against 7 fresh spikes. Eastland Gardens mirrors Walter Reed in theft from vehicle, while Glover Park and North Cleveland Park both registered other-larceny spikes, giving the larceny category an unusually broad footprint across 41 neighborhoods this month.

With no recurring lead and a fresh neighborhood at the top, August is a genuine shift from prior briefings rather than a continuation. Walter Reed is new to this position, and whether the larceny cluster across multiple neighborhoods reflects a sustained move or a single noisy month will be clearer in September's data.

Sustained drops worth naming

Robbery ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 32% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.

How last month's forecasts performed

Forecasts for August were issued from data through July 2025. 5 of 8 citywide bucket forecasts (62%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.

Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.