Eastland Gardens theft-from-vehicle is the headline signal this month — the sharpest single-neighborhood move in the June 2025 briefing, registering a strong above-baseline deviation. Walter Reed other-larceny has been the recurring backdrop: it was the citywide lead category last month, and it remains prominent, but the fresh story this briefing is the vehicle theft move in Eastland Gardens.
Citywide volume is down 9.4% against the prior 12 months — 28,173 incidents against 31,100 a year earlier. The signal mix across 41 neighborhoods runs heavily toward structural declines: 35 sustained-shift signals and 18 below-trend signals, against 5 fresh spikes. Three of those spikes sit in the same category — other-larceny shows fresh activity in Glover Park and North Cleveland Park alongside Walter Reed, suggesting the pattern isn't isolated.
The sustained-shift count of 35 is the defining feature of this briefing: most of what's moving has been moving for months, not breaking new ground in June. The other-larceny pattern across multiple neighborhoods is the one thread worth tracking into July — it appeared in four of the top five signals this month, which makes it a structural question rather than a one-neighborhood anomaly.
Sustained drops worth naming
Homicide ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 28% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for June were issued from data through May 2025. 4 of 8 citywide bucket forecasts (50%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 98[71–123] | 69 | 41.3% | MISS |
| Burglary | 116[69–160] | 45 | 156.7% | MISS |
| Homicide | 18[12–25] | 10 | 78.9% | MISS |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 533[382–685] | 358 | 49.0% | MISS |
| Other Larceny | 1080[822–1342] | 1085 | 0.5% | INSIDE |
| Robbery | 229[129–330] | 132 | 73.5% | INSIDE |
| Sexual Assault | 13[4–22] | 7 | 82.8% | INSIDE |
| Theft from Vehicle | 465[279–656] | 549 | 15.3% | INSIDE |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “June 2025 — Washington DC,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /dc/2025/june