Walter Reed other-larceny is the headline signal for July 2025 — a sharp above-baseline move that edges out the neighborhood's own theft-from-vehicle pattern, which had been the citywide lead category the prior month. Theft from vehicle in Walter Reed remains active and ranks first in the top five, but the fresh story is the other-larceny shift, which registered the strongest single-neighborhood signal this briefing.
Citywide volume is down 7.8% against the prior 12 months — 27,926 incidents against 30,287. The mix, however, shows some pressure: 7 spikes against 16 below-trend signals across 41 neighborhoods, with 33 sustained-shift signals adding to the picture. Theft from vehicle appears twice in the top five — Walter Reed and Eastland Gardens both running above baseline — while other-larceny accounts for three entries, including Glover Park and North Cleveland Park.
The structural decline holds at the citywide level, but the concentration of spikes in two related categories across multiple neighborhoods is worth tracking. Walter Reed has now appeared in the lead position in back-to-back months, in different buckets. If the pattern extends into August, it becomes a sustained story rather than a two-month cluster.
Sustained drops worth naming
Homicide ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 27% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for July were issued from data through June 2025. 5 of 8 citywide bucket forecasts (62%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 91[65–118] | 98 | 7.1% | INSIDE |
| Burglary | 76[23–124] | 72 | 5.3% | INSIDE |
| Homicide | 22[15–28] | 13 | 69.1% | MISS |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 546[387–698] | 359 | 52.2% | MISS |
| Other Larceny | 1173[919–1426] | 1115 | 5.2% | INSIDE |
| Robbery | 245[149–343] | 101 | 142.3% | MISS |
| Sexual Assault | 13[3–23] | 4 | 213.9% | INSIDE |
| Theft from Vehicle | 513[325–708] | 564 | 9.0% | INSIDE |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “July 2025 — Washington DC,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /dc/2025/july