Walter Reed other larceny is the dominant signal in May 2025 — a sharp move above its multi-year baseline, the strongest single-neighborhood reading this briefing. The same category also surfaced in Glover Park and North Cleveland Park, making other larceny the one category that ran hot across multiple neighborhoods simultaneously. No prior-month combo is carried over as backdrop; this is a fresh, concentrated pattern.
Citywide volume is down 10.8% against the prior 12 months — 28,355 incidents versus 31,771. The signal mix across 41 neighborhoods is tilted toward declines: 33 sustained-shift signals and 17 below-trend readings, against just 3 fresh spikes. Aggravated assault ran below trend in both Brookland and Howard University, contributing to that downward lean.
The other-larceny cluster is the clearest new development in May. With 55 total signals and the citywide volume trend firmly negative, the structural picture is one of continued decline — but the concentration of larceny spikes across three neighborhoods in the same month is a pattern to track in June's briefing.
Sustained drops worth naming
Homicide ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 27% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for May were issued from data through April 2025. 8 of 8 citywide bucket forecasts (100%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 102[76–128] | 81 | 25.4% | INSIDE |
| Burglary | 81[28–129] | 42 | 93.1% | INSIDE |
| Homicide | 20[13–27] | 17 | 17.2% | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 547[401–691] | 420 | 30.3% | INSIDE |
| Other Larceny | 1004[758–1258] | 1060 | 5.3% | INSIDE |
| Robbery | 188[97–284] | 160 | 17.6% | INSIDE |
| Sexual Assault | 12[4–22] | 6 | 107.3% | INSIDE |
| Theft from Vehicle | 457[261–647] | 512 | 10.7% | INSIDE |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “May 2025 — Washington DC,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /dc/2025/may