Riverside_Sedamsville other larceny is the lead signal for April 2026 — a fresh spike with no prior-month run behind it. With demoted_lead null this month, there is no recurring backdrop to set aside: this is a clean break, a newly surfaced move in a category that also appears in two other neighborhoods in the top five.
Citywide volume is down 5.6% against the prior 12 months — 13,472 incidents versus 14,268 the year before. The signal mix is heavily weighted toward fresh spikes: 16 spike signals and 18 sustained-shift signals across 50 neighborhoods, against just 4 below-trend signals. Mt. Airy and Camp Washington both show other-larceny spikes alongside Riverside_Sedamsville, suggesting the move is not isolated to a single neighborhood. Millvale aggravated assault also surfaces in the top five.
Other larceny appearing across three distinct neighborhoods in the same briefing is the structural story to watch going forward. The category-wide nature of the move — rather than a single outlier — makes this month's signal more durable than a single-point anomaly. Whether it persists into May or resolves as a one-month cluster will determine whether it becomes the dominant backdrop for subsequent briefings.
Sustained drops worth naming
Motor Vehicle Theft ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 27% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for April were issued from data through March 2026. 6 of 8 citywide bucket forecasts (75%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 76[62–91] | 104 | 26.7% | MISS |
| Burglary | 113[78–148] | 101 | 11.5% | INSIDE |
| Homicide | 3[0–6] | 1 | 169.1% | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 146[36–254] | 137 | 6.6% | INSIDE |
| Other Larceny | 397[349–448] | 334 | 19.0% | MISS |
| Robbery | 40[22–59] | 45 | 11.3% | INSIDE |
| Sexual Assault | 11[4–18] | 14 | 18.3% | INSIDE |
| Theft from Vehicle | 233[162–302] | 229 | 1.6% | INSIDE |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “April 2026 — Cincinnati,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /cincinnati/2026/april