Millvale Crime Rate Trends — Cincinnati
Millvale is a small West End neighborhood along Beekman Street and the Mill Creek Valley north of South Cumminsville. Predominantly low-density residential with significant public housing and adjacent industrial land.
Two categories spiked in Millvale this April — aggravated assault and other larceny — against a backdrop where most tracked property crime is running well below prior-year levels. The month's shape is narrow: two fresh spikes, nothing else crossing the threshold, and the 12-month property picture broadly down.
Aggravated assault is the sharper of the two signals. The trailing 12-month total of 22 incidents is up 37.5% against the prior 12-month period of 16, and sits above the multi-year baseline. Other larceny also registered a spike, with 30 incidents over the trailing year against 27 the year before — an 11.1% rise. Meanwhile, burglary is down 33.3%, theft from vehicle down 42.9%, and motor vehicle theft down 38.5% over the same window, so the assault and larceny moves stand out against an otherwise contracting crime profile.
Notable signals 2
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 22 incidents — about 127% above the 10 average from prior years.
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 30 incidents — about 79% above the 17 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
How Millvale compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month aggravated assault volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable aggravated assault levels.”
Bond Hill
22 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Millvale's 22.
Open page →College Hill
21 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Millvale's 22.
Open page →Northside
23 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Millvale's 22.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
When Millvale has spiked burglary historically (9 events on record), an adjacent neighborhood spiked the same category within 3 months 88.9% of the time. The strongest-travelling categories sit at the top of the table.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Other larceny | 11 | 54.5% |
| Burglary | 9 | 88.9% |
| Aggravated assault | 6 | 66.7% |
Each row shows Millvale's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 5 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Cincinnati); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Millvale, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Cincinnati Open Data — STARS Category Offenses post-2024-06-03 plus PDI Crime Incidents back to 2020 — mapped to 8 UCR-aligned categories (vandalism and arson aren't recoverable across the STARS migration boundary). Aggregated to Statistical Neighborhood Approximation × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.