Millvale Crime Rate Trends — Cincinnati
Millvale is a small West End neighborhood along Beekman Street and the Mill Creek Valley north of South Cumminsville. Predominantly low-density residential with significant public housing and adjacent industrial land.
June 2026 produced two spikes in Millvale — aggravated assault and other larceny — against a backdrop where most other tracked categories are running below their prior-year levels. The shape of the month is narrow: two categories pushed above trend while the rest of the portfolio moved in the opposite direction.
Aggravated assault is the more structurally significant of the two. The trailing 12-month total stands at 25 incidents, up 127.3% against the prior 12 months (11 incidents). Burglary, by contrast, has fallen to 14 incidents from 31 — down 54.8% — and robbery is down 33.3% to just 4 incidents. Other larceny climbed 18.5% year-over-year to 32 incidents, which alongside the assault move suggests the current pressure is concentrated in person-level and opportunistic crime rather than property crime broadly.
Notable signals 2
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 25 incidents — about 156% above the 10 average from prior years.
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 32 incidents — about 99% above the 16 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through June 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
How Millvale compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month aggravated assault volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable aggravated assault levels.”
CUF
24 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Millvale's 25.
Open page →Northside
23 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Millvale's 25.
Open page →Bond Hill
22 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below Millvale's 25.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
Millvaledoesn't have enough spike history in any single category for a stable spillover rate yet (we want at least 5 events). The table below lists what we have.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Aggravated assault | 2 | — too few |
| Other larceny | 2 | — too few |
Each row shows Millvale's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 5 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Cincinnati); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Millvale, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Cincinnati Open Data — STARS Category Offenses post-2024-06-03 plus PDI Crime Incidents back to 2020 — mapped to 8 UCR-aligned categories (vandalism and arson aren't recoverable across the STARS migration boundary). Aggregated to Statistical Neighborhood Approximation × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.