Corryville aggravated assault is the sharpest signal in March 2026 — a fresh spike with no prior-month recurrence in the rankings. There is no recurring lead from prior months to displace; this is a new pattern. Corryville also appears in the top five for burglary, making it the only neighborhood with two distinct categories moving in the same direction this briefing.
Citywide volume is down 4.2% against the prior 12 months — 13,603 incidents against 14,200. The month's signal mix leans heavily toward fresh spikes: 17 spike signals and 19 sustained-shift signals across 50 neighborhoods, against just 4 below-trend signals. Riverside_Sedamsville and Mt. Airy both registered other-larceny spikes, and Evanston's theft-from-vehicle signal rounds out the top five — a spread across property categories and geographies.
With 48 total signals and every one of the top five pointing upward, March stands out as an active month against a backdrop of modest overall decline. None of these categories has driven the Cincinnati briefing in recent months, so there is no established pattern to anchor against. The Corryville aggravated-assault move and the clustering of larceny spikes across multiple neighborhoods are the two trends to watch in April's briefing.
Sustained drops worth naming
Motor Vehicle Theft ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 27% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for March were issued from data through February 2026. 8 of 8 citywide bucket forecasts (100%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 64[49–80] | 68 | 5.8% | INSIDE |
| Burglary | 127[91–162] | 99 | 28.0% | INSIDE |
| Homicide | 3[0–7] | 4 | 14.1% | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 233[90–376] | 153 | 52.5% | INSIDE |
| Other Larceny | 397[350–448] | 408 | 2.7% | INSIDE |
| Robbery | 56[39–74] | 44 | 26.8% | INSIDE |
| Sexual Assault | 11[4–19] | 15 | 26.0% | INSIDE |
| Theft from Vehicle | 233[162–304] | 176 | 32.4% | INSIDE |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “March 2026 — Cincinnati,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /cincinnati/2026/march