Riverside_Sedamsville Crime Rate Trends — Cincinnati
Riverside and Sedamsville are merged here as a single Census-aligned SNA covering the western Ohio River shoreline between Sayler Park and downtown. Linear residential strip along River Road with rail and industrial uses dominating the riverfront.
One category moved in Riverside-Sedamsville this September: other larceny registered a spike, the only signal in an otherwise flat month. The remaining tracked categories, theft from vehicle, motor vehicle theft, aggravated assault, and burglary, all stayed within their expected ranges.
Other larceny carries the most weight here: 34 incidents over the trailing 12 months against 34 in the year before, a flat year-over-year count, but the spike signal reflects a single-month surge above the multi-year pace. Aggravated assault and burglary each ran 33.3% below their prior 12-month totals, 4 incidents each against 6, which provides some offsetting context. Theft from vehicle is the one category trending upward over the longer window, 19 incidents against 14 in the prior year, up 35.7%, though it did not register a signal this month.
Notable signals 1
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 34 incidents — about 228% above the 10 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through September 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
How Riverside_Sedamsville compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Millvale
32 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Riverside_Sedamsville's 34.
Open page →Paddock Hills
32 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Riverside_Sedamsville's 34.
Open page →Pleasant Ridge
37 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Riverside_Sedamsville's 34.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
Riverside_Sedamsvilledoesn't have enough spike history in any single category for a stable spillover rate yet (we want at least 5 events). The table below lists what we have.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Other larceny | 2 | — too few |
Each row shows Riverside_Sedamsville's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 4 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Cincinnati); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Riverside_Sedamsville, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Cincinnati Open Data — STARS Category Offenses post-2024-06-03 plus PDI Crime Incidents back to 2020 — mapped to 8 UCR-aligned categories (vandalism and arson aren't recoverable across the STARS migration boundary). Aggregated to Statistical Neighborhood Approximation × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.