Mt. Airy Crime Rate Trends — Cincinnati
Mt. Airy is a far west neighborhood organized around the 1,400-acre Mt. Airy Forest, the largest park in Cincinnati. Predominantly single-family residential with the forest dominating its western edge along North Bend and Colerain Avenue.
Two categories moved in Mt. Airy this September, both above trend. The shape of the month is narrow but pointed: a pair of spikes in other larceny and aggravated assault, with the remaining tracked categories either flat or within their normal year-over-year range.
Other larceny is the stronger of the two signals, with a trailing 12-month total of 99 incidents against 99 in the prior year, a flat annual rate that makes the single-month spike stand out against the historical pattern. Aggravated assault has also risen over the longer window, 34 incidents in the current 12 months versus 30 in the year before, a 13.3% increase. Burglary and theft from vehicle are both up year-over-year, 44.0% and 22.0% respectively, though neither crossed the anomaly threshold this month. Robbery is the outlier in the other direction, down 60.0% over 12 months, 8 incidents against 20 in the prior period.
Notable signals 2
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 99 incidents — about 46% above the 68 average from prior years.
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 34 incidents — about 112% above the 16 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through September 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
How Mt. Airy compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Clifton
92 incidents over the past 12 months — 7 below Mt. Airy's 99.
Open page →Evanston
91 incidents over the past 12 months — 8 below Mt. Airy's 99.
Open page →College Hill
90 incidents over the past 12 months — 9 below Mt. Airy's 99.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
Mt. Airydoesn't have enough spike history in any single category for a stable spillover rate yet (we want at least 5 events). The table below lists what we have.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Other larceny | 2 | — too few |
| Aggravated assault | 1 | — too few |
Each row shows Mt. Airy's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 5 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Cincinnati); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Mt. Airy, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Cincinnati Open Data — STARS Category Offenses post-2024-06-03 plus PDI Crime Incidents back to 2020 — mapped to 8 UCR-aligned categories (vandalism and arson aren't recoverable across the STARS migration boundary). Aggregated to Statistical Neighborhood Approximation × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.