Mt. Airy Crime Rate Trends — Cincinnati
Mt. Airy is a far west neighborhood organized around the 1,400-acre Mt. Airy Forest, the largest park in Cincinnati. Predominantly single-family residential with the forest dominating its western edge along North Bend and Colerain Avenue.
June 2026 produced two signals in Mt. Airy — one spike, one sustained structural shift — against a backdrop where most tracked categories held within normal range. The month's shape is narrow but meaningful: a one-month above-trend move in other larceny sits alongside a multi-year downward shift in motor vehicle theft.
Other larceny posted 96 incidents over the trailing 12 months against a multi-year baseline mean of 67.51 — the gap that drove the spike signal. Motor vehicle theft tells the opposite story: 49 incidents in the current 12 months against 86 in the prior year, a 43.0% structural decline that now reads as a sustained shift rather than a single quiet month. Robbery and aggravated assault also ran well below prior-year levels — down 70.8% and 35.3% respectively — though neither crossed the threshold for a formal signal this period.
Notable signals 1
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 96 incidents — about 42% above the 68 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 49, down 43% from 86 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through June 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
How Mt. Airy compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Camp Washington
102 incidents over the past 12 months — 6 above Mt. Airy's 96.
Open page →Clifton
103 incidents over the past 12 months — 7 above Mt. Airy's 96.
Open page →Evanston
110 incidents over the past 12 months — 14 above Mt. Airy's 96.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
Mt. Airydoesn't have enough spike history in any single category for a stable spillover rate yet (we want at least 5 events). The table below lists what we have.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Other larceny | 2 | — too few |
Each row shows Mt. Airy's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 5 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Cincinnati); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Mt. Airy, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Cincinnati Open Data — STARS Category Offenses post-2024-06-03 plus PDI Crime Incidents back to 2020 — mapped to 8 UCR-aligned categories (vandalism and arson aren't recoverable across the STARS migration boundary). Aggregated to Statistical Neighborhood Approximation × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.