Mt. Airy Crime Rate Trends — Cincinnati
Mt. Airy is a far west neighborhood organized around the 1,400-acre Mt. Airy Forest, the largest park in Cincinnati. Predominantly single-family residential with the forest dominating its western edge along North Bend and Colerain Avenue.
Three categories moved in Mt. Airy this April — two spikes and one sustained structural shift. Other Larceny and Aggravated Assault both registered one-month above-trend signals, while Motor Vehicle Theft shows a longer-running structural decrease that has now solidified into a sustained shift. The month is not broadly active, but the two spikes together make this a sharper-than-usual April.
Other Larceny is the larger of the two spikes: the trailing 12-month total stands at 101 incidents against a baseline mean of 65.49, and up 18.8% against the prior 12 months (85 incidents). Aggravated Assault also moved above trend, though the 12-month picture is modestly down — 26 incidents vs. 29 prior, a -10.3% year-over-year shift. Motor Vehicle Theft tells the clearest structural story: 47 incidents over the current 12 months against 90 in the year before, a -47.8% change that goes well beyond a single quiet month.
Notable signals 2
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 101 incidents — about 54% above the 65 average from prior years.
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 26 incidents — about 85% above the 14 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 47, down 48% from 90 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
How Mt. Airy compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Clifton
111 incidents over the past 12 months — 10 above Mt. Airy's 101.
Open page →College Hill
111 incidents over the past 12 months — 10 above Mt. Airy's 101.
Open page →Evanston
119 incidents over the past 12 months — 18 above Mt. Airy's 101.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
When Mt. Airy has spiked aggravated assault historically (12 events on record), an adjacent neighborhood spiked the same category within 3 months 91.7% of the time. The strongest-travelling categories sit at the top of the table.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Other larceny | 13 | 61.5% |
| Aggravated assault | 12 | 91.7% |
| Robbery | 6 | 83.3% |
Each row shows Mt. Airy's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 5 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Cincinnati); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Mt. Airy, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Cincinnati Open Data — STARS Category Offenses post-2024-06-03 plus PDI Crime Incidents back to 2020 — mapped to 8 UCR-aligned categories (vandalism and arson aren't recoverable across the STARS migration boundary). Aggregated to Statistical Neighborhood Approximation × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.