Camp Washington Crime Rate Trends — Cincinnati
Camp Washington is an industrial and warehouse district along the Mill Creek Valley north of downtown, named for an antebellum military camp. Bisected by I-75 and the rail corridor; residential pockets sit east of Spring Grove Avenue.
June 2026 in Camp Washington is a two-signal month, both pointing the same direction: other larceny. One signal is a single-month spike; the other is a sustained structural shift indicating the elevated volume has persisted across the trailing 12 months, not just surfaced this period. Every other tracked category — robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, theft from vehicle, motor vehicle theft — ran within range.
The structural shift is the harder number to ignore. Other larceny over the current 12 months totals 102 incidents against 32 in the prior 12-month period, a 218.8% increase year-over-year. The long-run baseline for the category sat at 41.65 incidents, making the current 12-month total roughly 2.5 times that reference level. Aggravated assault moved the other way, down 35.7% (9 incidents vs. 14), and motor vehicle theft fell 18.5% — but neither generated a signal this month. The month's story is almost entirely concentrated in one category showing both a monthly spike and a multi-year structural break.
Notable signals 1
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 102 incidents — about 145% above the 42 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 102, up 219% from 32 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through June 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
How Camp Washington compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Clifton
103 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Camp Washington's 102.
Open page →Mt. Airy
96 incidents over the past 12 months — 6 below Camp Washington's 102.
Open page →Evanston
110 incidents over the past 12 months — 8 above Camp Washington's 102.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
Camp Washingtondoesn't have enough spike history in any single category for a stable spillover rate yet (we want at least 5 events). The table below lists what we have.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Other larceny | 2 | — too few |
Each row shows Camp Washington's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 7 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Cincinnati); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Camp Washington, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Cincinnati Open Data — STARS Category Offenses post-2024-06-03 plus PDI Crime Incidents back to 2020 — mapped to 8 UCR-aligned categories (vandalism and arson aren't recoverable across the STARS migration boundary). Aggregated to Statistical Neighborhood Approximation × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.