Camp Washington Crime Rate Trends — Cincinnati
Camp Washington is an industrial and warehouse district along the Mill Creek Valley north of downtown, named for an antebellum military camp. Bisected by I-75 and the rail corridor; residential pockets sit east of Spring Grove Avenue.
Two categories moved in Camp Washington this April — one fresh spike and one sustained structural shift, both landing on the same bucket. The month's signal is narrow in breadth but pointed in direction: other larceny is running well above where it was a year ago, and the sustained-shift signal confirms this isn't a single noisy month.
Other larceny sits at 77 incidents over the trailing 12 months, up 120.0% against the prior year's 35. The sustained-shift signal means that gap has been building across multiple months, not just April. Elsewhere, theft from vehicle is up 73.7% year-over-year (33 vs. 19), motor vehicle theft is up 19.0%, and aggravated assault is down 25.0% — but none of those crossed a signal threshold this month. Robbery and burglary were within range.
Notable signals 1
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 77 incidents — about 84% above the 42 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 77, up 120% from 35 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
How Camp Washington compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Hyde Park
71 incidents over the past 12 months — 6 below Camp Washington's 77.
Open page →Northside
83 incidents over the past 12 months — 6 above Camp Washington's 77.
Open page →Lower Price Hill_Queensgate
68 incidents over the past 12 months — 9 below Camp Washington's 77.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
Camp Washingtondoesn't have enough spike history in any single category for a stable spillover rate yet (we want at least 5 events). The table below lists what we have.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Burglary | 4 | — too few |
| Other larceny | 3 | — too few |
Each row shows Camp Washington's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 7 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Cincinnati); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Camp Washington, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Cincinnati Open Data — STARS Category Offenses post-2024-06-03 plus PDI Crime Incidents back to 2020 — mapped to 8 UCR-aligned categories (vandalism and arson aren't recoverable across the STARS migration boundary). Aggregated to Statistical Neighborhood Approximation × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.