South of Market vandalism is the lead signal this month — a sharper below-trend move than any other neighborhood-category pair in San Francisco this briefing, with vandalism also running below trend in Nob Hill and Pacific Heights. Noe Valley other-larceny topped the rankings last month, and that pattern hasn't reversed, but vandalism across multiple neighborhoods is the fresher story here.
Citywide volume is down 23.9% against the prior 12 months — 35,507 incidents against 46,686 the year before. The signal mix is heavily one-directional: 89 below-trend signals and 87 sustained-shift signals against a single spike across 41 neighborhoods. Portola burglary also ran below trend, adding a property-crime category to the list beyond vandalism.
The structural picture is consistent with recent months — broad-based declines, minimal upward pressure, and one outlier spike in Noe Valley other-larceny that bears watching to see whether it develops into a sustained pattern. The vandalism moves across South of Market, Nob Hill, and Pacific Heights are the new element this month; if they persist into July, that becomes a category-level trend rather than a single-month reading.
Sustained drops worth naming
Burglary ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 30% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for June were issued from data through May 2026. 9 of 10 citywide bucket forecasts (90%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 218[166–266] | 195 | 11.5% | INSIDE |
| Arson | 27[12–43] | 15 | 80.9% | INSIDE |
| Burglary | 316[147–484] | 227 | 39.4% | INSIDE |
| Homicide | 4[0–7] | 0 | — | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 226[110–342] | 240 | 5.9% | INSIDE |
| Other Larceny | 1096[780–1431] | 693 | 58.1% | MISS |
| Robbery | 156[82–232] | 117 | 33.5% | INSIDE |
| Sexual Assault | 12[1–23] | 14 | 14.0% | INSIDE |
| Theft from Vehicle | 764[0–1817] | 329 | 132.2% | INSIDE |
| Vandalism | 429[340–522] | 373 | 15.1% | INSIDE |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “June 2026 — San Francisco,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /san-francisco/2026/june