The most novel signal in February 2026 is a streak break in Financial District/South Beach homicide — a category that had been running at zero events long enough to register as a sustained absence. Noe Valley other-larceny remains the persistent backdrop: it held the top ranking last month and sits at the head of the top five again, but the bucket has already had its turn as the lead, so the streak break takes the headline this briefing.
Citywide volume is down 25.2% against the prior 12 months — 38,122 incidents against 50,998 in the year before. The signal mix is heavily weighted toward declines: 96 sustained-shift signals and 88 below-trend signals, against a single fresh spike and one streak break across 41 neighborhoods. Portola burglary and South of Market vandalism both ran below trend, and vandalism in Hayes Valley also appeared in the top five.
The structural picture is largely unchanged from prior months: broad-based declines dominate, the spike count remains minimal, and the Noe Valley other-larceny pattern is now a recurring fixture rather than a fresh development. The Financial District/South Beach homicide streak break is the one signal that breaks from that pattern and warrants attention in the March briefing.
Sustained drops worth naming
Robbery ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 27% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for February were issued from data through January 2026. 9 of 10 citywide bucket forecasts (90%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 195[144–246] | 176 | 10.8% | INSIDE |
| Arson | 26[11–42] | 16 | 63.6% | INSIDE |
| Burglary | 321[152–490] | 264 | 21.6% | INSIDE |
| Homicide | 3[0–7] | 4 | 16.7% | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 223[118–335] | 261 | 14.5% | INSIDE |
| Other Larceny | 1004[730–1320] | 817 | 22.8% | INSIDE |
| Robbery | 181[108–255] | 92 | 96.7% | MISS |
| Sexual Assault | 8[0–19] | 10 | 23.6% | INSIDE |
| Theft from Vehicle | 432[0–1402] | 354 | 22.1% | INSIDE |
| Vandalism | 386[289–483] | 388 | 0.6% | INSIDE |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “February 2026 — San Francisco,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /san-francisco/2026/february