The freshest signal this February is a streak break in Financial District/South Beach homicide — a rare-event category that had gone quiet long enough for any recurrence to register. Noe Valley other-larceny remains the persistent backdrop, holding its position at the top of the rankings for the prior stretch, but the bucket has now run its course as the headline; the homicide streak break in Financial District/South Beach is the new story.
Citywide volume is down 25.2% against the prior 12 months — 38,137 incidents versus 50,998 the year before. The mix remains heavily weighted toward declines: 96 sustained-shift signals and 88 below-trend signals, against a single fresh spike. Portola burglary and South of Market vandalism both ran below trend, part of a broad pattern of falling property crime across 41 neighborhoods.
The structural picture is consistent with prior months — a long-running citywide decline holding across most categories and neighborhoods. The Financial District/South Beach homicide streak break is the one signal that breaks the pattern, and with a streak length of 1 it is too early to read as a reversal. February is largely a continuation briefing, with one category worth tracking into March.
Sustained drops worth naming
Robbery ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 27% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for February were issued from data through January 2026. 9 of 10 citywide bucket forecasts (90%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 195[144–246] | 176 | 10.8% | INSIDE |
| Arson | 26[11–42] | 16 | 63.6% | INSIDE |
| Burglary | 321[152–490] | 264 | 21.6% | INSIDE |
| Homicide | 3[0–7] | 4 | 16.7% | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 223[118–335] | 261 | 14.5% | INSIDE |
| Other Larceny | 1004[730–1320] | 828 | 21.2% | INSIDE |
| Robbery | 181[108–255] | 92 | 96.7% | MISS |
| Sexual Assault | 8[0–19] | 10 | 23.6% | INSIDE |
| Theft from Vehicle | 432[0–1402] | 354 | 22.1% | INSIDE |
| Vandalism | 386[289–483] | 388 | 0.6% | INSIDE |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “February 2026 — San Francisco,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /san-francisco/2026/february