San Francisco Crime Rate — March 2026

Noe Valley other larceny is the sharpest single signal this month — a fresh spike standing out against a briefing otherwise dominated by below-trend readings. It is the lone spike in the top five; the remaining four entries are all drops, spread across vandalism, burglary, and motor vehicle theft in South of Market, Hayes Valley, Portola, and North Beach.

Citywide volume is down 25.0% against the prior 12 months — 37,408 incidents against 49,865 the year before. The signal mix reflects that structural decline: 100 sustained-shift signals and 91 below-trend readings across 41 neighborhoods, against a single spike in 207 total signals. South of Market vandalism and Portola burglary both ran below trend, consistent with the broad-based pattern.

This month's briefing is largely a continuation of what the prior several months established: a citywide decline held in place by widespread sustained shifts, with 15 zero-event signals and only one fresh above-trend move to track. The Noe Valley other-larceny spike is the one thread worth watching into April — everything else fits the existing arc.

Sustained drops worth naming

Robbery ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 27% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.

How last month's forecasts performed

Forecasts for March were issued from data through February 2026. 9 of 10 citywide bucket forecasts (90%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.

Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.