San Francisco Crime Rate — March 2026

Noe Valley other larceny is the lead signal this month — a fresh spike against a citywide backdrop that is otherwise running well below prior-year levels. Four of the remaining top-five signals are drops, and the broader breakdown is dominated by sustained declines. This is the first month Noe Valley other larceny holds the top position, not a recurring pattern.

Citywide volume is down 24.9% against the prior 12 months — 37,434 incidents vs 49,865 the year before. The signal mix across 41 neighborhoods is heavily weighted toward contraction: 100 sustained-shift signals and 91 below-trend signals, against just one fresh spike. South of Market vandalism and Hayes Valley vandalism both appear in the top five as drops, alongside a burglary decline in Portola.

With 207 total signals and only one spike in the mix, March 2026 reads as a continuation of the multi-year decline rather than a turning point. The Noe Valley other-larceny move is the one category worth watching in April — it broke upward this month in an otherwise quiet signal environment, and whether it persists or reverts will clarify whether it's noise or the start of a local shift.

Sustained drops worth naming

Robbery ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 27% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.

How last month's forecasts performed

Forecasts for March were issued from data through February 2026. 9 of 10 citywide bucket forecasts (90%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.

Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.