Noe Valley other-larceny is the lead signal this month — a sharp upward move against baseline, the most prominent fresh signal across 41 neighborhoods. Chinatown aggravated assault and Lakeshore burglary also moved above trend, making this a month with three distinct spikes in the top five against an otherwise broadly declining backdrop.
Citywide volume is down 25.5% against the prior 12 months — 39,111 incidents against 52,500 in the year before. The signal mix is heavily weighted toward declines: 105 sustained-shift signals and 85 below-trend signals, against only 3 spikes. Portola burglary and South of Market vandalism both ran below trend, consistent with the broad downward pattern holding across most of the city.
The three upward-moving categories are new to the top of the rankings this month — lead-run length is 1, meaning no entrenched recurring story is carrying over from prior briefings. Whether the Noe Valley and Chinatown moves are isolated or the start of something sustained is a question February's data will answer. For now, the structural decline is intact, and the spikes are the exception rather than the rule.
Sustained drops worth naming
Sexual Assault ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 54% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
Public Analyst.ai, “January 2026 — San Francisco,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /san-francisco/2026/january