San Francisco Crime Rate — January 2026

Noe Valley other larceny is the dominant signal in January 2026 — a fresh spike against baseline, and the strongest single-neighborhood move this briefing. The spike arrives without a recurring backdrop to explain it away: no prior-month demoted lead, no multi-month run in the same category. It stands on its own as the month's most prominent shift.

Citywide volume is down 25.5% against the prior 12 months — 39,115 incidents vs 52,500 in the year before. The signal mix is weighted heavily toward sustained declines: 105 sustained-shift signals and 85 below-trend signals across 41 neighborhoods, against just 3 fresh spikes. Chinatown aggravated assault and Lakeshore burglary round out the spike side; Portola burglary and South of Market vandalism both ran below trend.

At 208 total signals, this is a structurally active month despite the citywide volume decline. The three isolated spikes — Noe Valley, Chinatown, Lakeshore — are geographically scattered with no shared category except burglary between two of them. February's briefing will show whether any of these moves repeat or whether January reads as noise in an otherwise sustained down trend.

Sustained drops worth naming

Sexual Assault ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 54% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.