Lincoln Park burglary ended a streak this month, the freshest signal in a briefing otherwise dominated by sustained declines. Noe Valley other-larceny has been the persistent backdrop — last month's citywide lead category — but the new story is the streak break in Lincoln Park, joined by a sexual assault streak break in Presidio Heights. Two streak breaks in the top five is unusual when the broader mix is this quiet.
Citywide volume is down 24.5% against the prior 12 months — 36,811 incidents against 48,778 in the year before. The signal mix is overwhelmingly tilted toward decline: 94 sustained-shift signals and 90 below-trend signals, plus 15 zero-event signals, against a single fresh spike across 41 neighborhoods. South of Market vandalism and Portola burglary both ran below trend, reinforcing the broad pattern.
The two streak breaks are the main things to watch heading into May. They don't reverse the citywide direction — the multi-year decline holds — but they represent the first fresh upward moves in those neighborhoods in several months. If either category holds above trend next month, it becomes a sustained signal rather than a one-month break.
Sustained drops worth naming
Robbery ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 26% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for April were issued from data through March 2026. 10 of 10 citywide bucket forecasts (100%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 194[146–247] | 190 | 2.1% | INSIDE |
| Arson | 26[12–41] | 23 | 14.2% | INSIDE |
| Burglary | 343[184–511] | 298 | 14.9% | INSIDE |
| Homicide | 3[0–7] | 3 | 13.6% | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 187[78–294] | 274 | 31.8% | INSIDE |
| Other Larceny | 1007[715–1322] | 793 | 27.0% | INSIDE |
| Robbery | 127[46–208] | 134 | 5.5% | INSIDE |
| Sexual Assault | 7[0–18] | 9 | 27.3% | INSIDE |
| Theft from Vehicle | 281[0–1212] | 339 | 17.0% | INSIDE |
| Vandalism | 422[320–515] | 427 | 1.1% | INSIDE |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “April 2026 — San Francisco,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /san-francisco/2026/april