Noe Valley other larceny rose sharply this month — the most prominent fresh signal in San Francisco's May 2026 briefing and the first time this category-neighborhood combination has topped the rankings. That single spike stands out against a citywide backdrop overwhelmingly tilted toward declines and sustained below-trend patterns. No demoted recurring lead sits behind it; this is a genuinely new move at the top of the distribution.
Citywide volume is down 23.8% against the prior 12 months — 36,536 incidents versus 47,969 the year before. The mix is lopsided: 90 sustained-shift signals and 85 below-trend signals against just one spike and one streak break across 41 neighborhoods. Seacliff aggravated assault registered that streak break — a category that had been running quietly — while South of Market and Hayes Valley both continued to show vandalism running below trend.
The structural story in San Francisco remains one of broad, sustained decline. One spike in 192 total signals is not a reversal; it is an outlier in a month that otherwise reinforces the multi-year downward trend. Noe Valley other larceny is worth tracking in June — whether it holds above baseline or reverts will clarify whether May was noise or the start of a directional shift.
Sustained drops worth naming
Sexual Assault ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 33% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for May were issued from data through April 2026. 10 of 10 citywide bucket forecasts (100%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 215[162–267] | 215 | 0.0% | INSIDE |
| Arson | 26[11–42] | 26 | 1.8% | INSIDE |
| Burglary | 375[208–542] | 305 | 23.0% | INSIDE |
| Homicide | 6[2–9] | 3 | 83.9% | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 242[130–356] | 286 | 15.2% | INSIDE |
| Other Larceny | 1046[717–1356] | 984 | 6.2% | INSIDE |
| Robbery | 141[61–217] | 140 | 1.0% | INSIDE |
| Sexual Assault | 12[0–24] | 5 | 134.7% | INSIDE |
| Theft from Vehicle | 617[0–1677] | 429 | 43.9% | INSIDE |
| Vandalism | 406[313–502] | 399 | 1.8% | INSIDE |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “May 2026 — San Francisco,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /san-francisco/2026/may