Noe Valley other larceny stands out as the month's sharpest single signal — a fresh spike against the neighborhood's multi-year baseline, and the first time this combination has topped the citywide rankings. The second-most distinctive move is a streak break in Seacliff aggravated assault, a category that had been running at or near zero for an extended period before this month's count registered.
Citywide volume is down 23.9% against the prior 12 months — 36,489 incidents against 47,969 the year before. The mix is heavily weighted toward sustained declines: 90 sustained-shift signals and 85 below-trend signals across 41 neighborhoods, against just one fresh spike. Vandalism continues to pull lower across multiple areas; South of Market and Hayes Valley both appear in the top five with below-trend readings.
With no recurring lead to displace and the dominant signal appearing for the first time this month, May 2026 has a different texture than recent briefings. The structural decline in citywide volume holds and deepens. The Noe Valley other-larceny move and the Seacliff streak break are worth tracking in June — neither has enough history in the current direction to confirm a turn.
Sustained drops worth naming
Sexual Assault ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 33% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for May were issued from data through April 2026. 10 of 10 citywide bucket forecasts (100%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 215[162–267] | 215 | 0.0% | INSIDE |
| Arson | 26[11–42] | 26 | 1.8% | INSIDE |
| Burglary | 375[208–542] | 298 | 25.9% | INSIDE |
| Homicide | 6[2–9] | 2 | 175.8% | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 242[130–356] | 286 | 15.2% | INSIDE |
| Other Larceny | 1046[717–1356] | 974 | 7.3% | INSIDE |
| Robbery | 141[61–217] | 140 | 1.0% | INSIDE |
| Sexual Assault | 12[0–24] | 5 | 134.7% | INSIDE |
| Theft from Vehicle | 617[0–1677] | 427 | 44.5% | INSIDE |
| Vandalism | 406[313–502] | 396 | 2.5% | INSIDE |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “May 2026 — San Francisco,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /san-francisco/2026/may