Noe Valley other larceny is the lead signal for November 2025 — a fresh spike against its multi-year baseline, the most pronounced single-category move in the city this month. Lakeshore burglary also registered a fresh spike, and together those two stand out in a briefing otherwise dominated by below-trend readings and sustained declines.
Citywide volume is down 25.0% against the prior 12 months — 40,951 incidents against 54,570 the year before. The signal mix reinforces that picture: 102 sustained-shift signals and 75 below-trend signals, with only 2 fresh spikes across 41 neighborhoods. Hayes Valley vandalism and Portola burglary both ran well below trend, adding to the broad pattern of declining activity across categories.
This is the first month Noe Valley other larceny holds the top position, so there is no multi-month run to weigh it against yet. The two fresh spikes are the signals most worth tracking into December — the rest of the 195 total signals lean heavily toward continuation of the existing decline, and the structural downward trend that has been in place citywide remains intact.
Sustained drops worth naming
Sexual Assault ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 56% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
Public Analyst.ai, “November 2025 — San Francisco,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /san-francisco/2025/november