The most distinctive fresh signal in December 2025 is a spike in aggravated assault in Chinatown, the strongest single-category move this briefing. That shifts attention away from Noe Valley other-larceny, which has held the top ranking and is the persistent backdrop — though the category has only been the citywide lead for one prior month, making the demotion partly a reset rather than a long-running dismissal.
Citywide volume is down 25.2% against the prior 12 months — 40,144 incidents against 53,677 in the year before. The signal mix is heavily weighted toward sustained declines: 104 sustained-shift signals and 81 below-trend signals across 41 neighborhoods, against just 2 fresh spikes. Russian Hill homicide surfaced as a rare-event signal, and Nob Hill homicide registered a streak break — both categories draw attention even at low absolute counts.
The structural picture for December 2025 is one of continued broad-based decline, with the Chinatown aggravated assault spike and the two homicide signals the categories to watch in the months ahead. Nothing in the current data suggests a citywide reversal; those three signals are specific and localized against an otherwise stable downward trend.
Sustained drops worth naming
Sexual Assault ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 58% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
Public Analyst.ai, “December 2025 — San Francisco,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /san-francisco/2025/december