San Francisco Crime Rate — June 2025

The month's most distinctive signals are rare-event clusters rather than a single dominant trend. Lincoln Park arson and a homicide in North Beach both surfaced as rare-event signals — low-frequency categories that draw attention precisely because they so rarely appear. Bernal Heights other-larceny was the prior month's lead, and that category is still active in June, with both Bernal Heights and Noe Valley posting spikes.

Citywide volume is down 24.6% against the prior 12 months — 46,644 incidents against 61,825 the year before. The mix across 41 neighborhoods is heavily weighted toward sustained declines: 84 sustained-shift signals and 55 below-trend signals, against just 2 fresh spikes. Lakeshore sexual assault registered a streak break, and 15 categories recorded zero events in their respective neighborhoods.

The structural picture is one of broad, durable decline. The two spikes — both in other-larceny — are concentrated in adjacent neighborhoods, Bernal Heights and Noe Valley, which makes the pattern worth tracking in July. Everything else this month reads as a continuation of a multi-month downward trend rather than a reversal.

Sustained drops worth naming

Robbery ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 28% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.