Bernal Heights other larceny is the dominant signal in July 2025 — a sharp move above its multi-year baseline that stands out even in a month with 170 tracked signals across San Francisco. No prior lead combination carried over from June, so this is a fresh story with no recurring backdrop to discount it.
Citywide volume is down 24.9% against the prior 12 months — 44,939 incidents against 59,808 — a substantial and sustained reduction. The signal mix is heavily tilted toward declines: 94 sustained-shift signals and 57 below-trend signals, against just 2 fresh spikes across 41 neighborhoods. Noe Valley other larceny is the second spike in the top five, suggesting the Bernal Heights move isn't fully isolated. Russian Hill robbery ran below trend, and two rare-event signals — arson in Lincoln Park and homicide in North Beach — round out the leading signals.
The larceny pairing in Bernal Heights and Noe Valley is the one pattern worth tracking into August. Both are fresh spikes this month with no prior-month streak, so it's a single data point rather than a confirmed trend. The broader structure — a citywide decline now 24.9% below the prior year — remains intact, and the overwhelming majority of signals this month point in that direction.
Sustained drops worth naming
Robbery ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 27% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
Public Analyst.ai, “July 2025 — San Francisco,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /san-francisco/2025/july