Bernal Heights other larceny is the dominant signal in May 2025 — a sharp rise against its multi-year baseline, the most pronounced single-category move across all 41 neighborhoods tracked this month. Noe Valley shows the same pattern, with other larceny also posting a spike, which makes the clustering across adjacent neighborhoods the most distinctive feature of this briefing. No demoted prior lead is in play; this combination is new to the top position.
Citywide volume is down 24.8% against the prior 12 months — 47,931 incidents against 63,735 the year before. The signal mix is heavily weighted toward declines: 81 sustained-shift signals and 49 below-trend signals, against just 2 fresh spikes. The two rare-event signals — arson in Lincoln Park and homicide in North Beach — are low-frequency categories by nature, and North Beach homicide also registers a streak break, meaning a previously quiet run has ended.
The structural backdrop is a citywide volume decline that has held across multiple months, and May does nothing to reverse it. The other-larceny cluster in Bernal Heights and Noe Valley is the one pattern that breaks from that trend and warrants attention in June. If it persists, it will move from a single-month signal to a sustained shift; for now, it is one month of data in an otherwise quiet, declining environment.
Sustained drops worth naming
Robbery ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 26% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
Public Analyst.ai, “May 2025 — San Francisco,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /san-francisco/2025/may