Archived snapshotJanuary 2025 · narrative + chart preserved as published · live data has moved on
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San Francisco · monthly briefing

San Francisco Crime Rate — January 2025

Bernal Heights other larceny ran 62% above its multi-year baseline.

Bernal Heights other larceny is the dominant signal in January 2025 — a sharp upward move that stands as the strongest single-neighborhood, single-category reading this month. The same pattern appears in Noe Valley and Western Addition, making other larceny an unusually broad, multi-neighborhood story rather than an isolated local spike. No prior-month recurring lead is in the picture; this combination is new to the top of the rankings.

Citywide volume is down 24.2% against the prior 12 months — 52,500 incidents against 69,239. The mix remains heavily weighted toward declines: 78 sustained-shift signals and 33 below-trend signals, against only 3 fresh spikes across 41 neighborhoods. Visitacion Valley also stands out, with a homicide streak break, while Marina theft from vehicle continued below trend.

The other-larceny cluster across three neighborhoods is the clearest new development in this briefing. It's the first month it has appeared at the top, so whether it extends into February or resolves as a single-month move remains an open question. The broader structural decline holds — 130 total signals, with below-trend categories far outnumbering upward ones.

FIG 1 · LEAD ANOMALYOTHER LARCENY · BERNAL HEIGHTS · 24-MO COUNT
03061μ 33.3 · σ 10.0 · trailing 12-mo2023-022025-01ARCHIVED
Bernal Heights other larceny, monthly count over 24 months ending in January 2025. The dashed line is the trailing-12-month mean for context. The final bar (highlighted) is January. Frozen view as published.

Sustained drops worth naming

Theft from Vehicle ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 49% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.

CITEPublic Analyst.ai, “January 2025San Francisco,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /san-francisco/2025/january