The most notable fresh signal this month is Marina theft from vehicle, which posted a sharp decline against its multi-year baseline — the strongest single-category move in this briefing. That stands in contrast to Bernal Heights other-larceny, which had been the citywide lead last month and remains a recurring backdrop: the same category is now registering fresh spikes across multiple neighborhoods, with Noe Valley and Western Addition both appearing in the top five alongside Bernal Heights.
Citywide volume is down 25.6% against the prior 12 months — 50,998 incidents against 68,506. The mix is weighted heavily toward sustained declines: 81 sustained-shift signals and 35 below-trend signals, against just 3 fresh spikes across 41 neighborhoods. Russian Hill robbery also ran below trend, adding to a picture where the dominant movement this month is downward.
The structural decline continues to hold, and this briefing is largely a continuation of that arc. The one pattern worth tracking is the other-larceny cluster: three separate neighborhoods — Bernal Heights, Noe Valley, and Western Addition — showed spikes in the same category. Whether that broadens in March will determine if it's a passing month or the start of a sustained shift.
Sustained drops worth naming
Theft from Vehicle ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 51% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
Public Analyst.ai, “February 2025 — San Francisco,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /san-francisco/2025/february