Seminary Park's other-larceny count is the dominant signal in November 2025 — the only fresh spike across Oakland this month, and the sharpest single-neighborhood move in the top five. Every other ranked signal this briefing points in the opposite direction, with drops in vandalism, aggravated assault, and motor vehicle theft across several neighborhoods.
Citywide volume is down 23.3% against the prior 12 months — 30,077 incidents against 39,191 the year before. The signal mix reinforces that picture: 84 sustained-shift signals and 68 below-trend signals against a single spike across 35 neighborhoods. Seminary Park itself accounts for two of the top five, with a vandalism drop sitting alongside the other-larceny rise. Adams Point vandalism and Glenview aggravated assault both ran below trend as well.
The structural story in Oakland is a broad, sustained decline — 153 tracked signals this month, and the overwhelming weight of them point downward. Seminary Park's other-larceny move is new and isolated; one month is not a pattern. If it recurs in December, it will warrant closer attention. For now, the citywide arc holds.
Sustained drops worth naming
Robbery ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 37% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
Public Analyst.ai, “November 2025 — Oakland,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /oakland/2025/november