Queens CD14 — Far Rockaway / Broad Channel Crime Rate Trends — New York
Queens's southernmost community district covers the Rockaway peninsula and Broad Channel — Far Rockaway, Edgemere, Arverne, Rockaway Beach, Rockaway Park, Belle Harbor, Neponsit, and Breezy Point. Anchored by the Rockaway boardwalk, Jamaica Bay Wildlife Refuge, the Cross Bay Boulevard and Marine Parkway bridges, and the A train shuttle along the peninsula.
Five signals across Queens CD14 — Far Rockaway / Broad Channel this month: one single-month below-trend drop and four sustained structural shifts, all pointing in the same direction. The shape is uniformly downward — across both violent and property categories — with the sustained-shift signals indicating this isn't a single quiet month but a multi-year reset in crime volume.
Vandalism leads the single-month signal, with 449 incidents in the current 12-month window against a baseline of 782.87 — a gap that stands on its own. The sustained shifts in Robbery and Theft from Vehicle reinforce the structural read: robbery is down 28.7% year-over-year (129 vs. 181), and theft from vehicle is down 31.2% (130 vs. 189). Motor Vehicle Theft and Vandalism also show steep 12-month declines — 38.2% and 27.6%, respectively — and every other tracked category is running below its prior-year total.
Notable signals 1
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 449 incidents — about 43% below the 783 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 449, down 28% from 620 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 130, down 31% from 189 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 63, down 38% from 102 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 129, down 29% from 181 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through May 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Queens CD14 — Far Rockaway / Broad Channel compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Brooklyn CD4 — Bushwick
440 incidents over the past 12 months — 9 below Queens CD14 — Far Rockaway / Broad Channel's 449.
Open page →Bronx CD3 — Morrisania / Crotona
487 incidents over the past 12 months — 38 above Queens CD14 — Far Rockaway / Broad Channel's 449.
Open page →Manhattan CD4 — Chelsea / Hell's Kitchen
490 incidents over the past 12 months — 41 above Queens CD14 — Far Rockaway / Broad Channel's 449.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Queens CD14 — Far Rockaway / Broad Channel, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.