Queens CD14 — Far Rockaway / Broad Channel Crime Rate Trends — New York
Queens's southernmost community district covers the Rockaway peninsula and Broad Channel — Far Rockaway, Edgemere, Arverne, Rockaway Beach, Rockaway Park, Belle Harbor, Neponsit, and Breezy Point. Anchored by the Rockaway boardwalk, Jamaica Bay Wildlife Refuge, the Cross Bay Boulevard and Marine Parkway bridges, and the A train shuttle along the peninsula.
Two categories moved in Queens CD14, Far Rockaway / Broad Channel this July: one one-month below-trend signal and one structural, multi-month shift. The overall picture is downward, with no spikes or rare events in the mix.
Vandalism is the sharper single-month move, with 486 incidents in the current 12-month window against 591 in the prior year, down 17.8%. Theft from vehicle shows a deeper, longer pattern: 129 incidents over the current 12 months vs. 183 in the year before, a 29.5% reduction that has settled into a sustained shift rather than a one-month dip. Every other tracked category was within its normal range this month.
Notable signals 1
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 486 incidents — about 38% below the 778 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 129, down 30% from 183 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through July 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Queens CD14 — Far Rockaway / Broad Channel compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Brooklyn CD4 — Bushwick
463 incidents over the past 12 months — 23 below Queens CD14 — Far Rockaway / Broad Channel's 486.
Open page →Brooklyn CD13 — Coney Island / Brighton Beach
450 incidents over the past 12 months — 36 below Queens CD14 — Far Rockaway / Broad Channel's 486.
Open page →Queens CD7 — Flushing / Whitestone
529 incidents over the past 12 months — 43 above Queens CD14 — Far Rockaway / Broad Channel's 486.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Queens CD14 — Far Rockaway / Broad Channel, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.