Queens CD14 — Far Rockaway / Broad Channel Crime Rate Trends — New York
Queens's southernmost community district covers the Rockaway peninsula and Broad Channel — Far Rockaway, Edgemere, Arverne, Rockaway Beach, Rockaway Park, Belle Harbor, Neponsit, and Breezy Point. Anchored by the Rockaway boardwalk, Jamaica Bay Wildlife Refuge, the Cross Bay Boulevard and Marine Parkway bridges, and the A train shuttle along the peninsula.
March 2026 produced a mixed picture in Queens CD14 — Far Rockaway / Broad Channel: two categories moved in opposite directions against a backdrop where most tracked buckets held within range. Other Larceny registered a one-month spike while Vandalism ran below trend — a split signal rather than a broad directional move.
Other Larceny is the sharper of the two signals. The trailing 12-month total reached 1,542 incidents against a baseline of 1,146.72, and the year-over-year comparison shows an 18.1% rise — 1,542 vs 1,306 in the prior 12 months. Vandalism moved the other way, down 15.8% over the same window (539 vs 640). Motor Vehicle Theft and Theft from Vehicle both show sustained multi-year declines — down 28.6% and 23.2% respectively — contributing to the overall property-crime context even though neither produced a fresh signal this month.
Notable signals 2
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 1,542 incidents — about 34% above the 1147 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 539 incidents — about 32% below the 787 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Queens CD14 — Far Rockaway / Broad Channel compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Manhattan CD9 — Morningside Heights / Hamilton Heights
1,555 incidents over the past 12 months — 13 above Queens CD14 — Far Rockaway / Broad Channel's 1,542.
Open page →Staten Island CD2 — Mid-Island
1,561 incidents over the past 12 months — 19 above Queens CD14 — Far Rockaway / Broad Channel's 1,542.
Open page →Queens CD10 — Howard Beach / Ozone Park
1,567 incidents over the past 12 months — 25 above Queens CD14 — Far Rockaway / Broad Channel's 1,542.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Queens CD14 — Far Rockaway / Broad Channel, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.