Citywide incident volume was down 25.9% against the trailing twelve months in January 2026. The largest moves are summarized to the left and broken out below.
The headline is in Tarzana, where other larceny jumped sharply against the prior baseline. The neighborhood page (link in the sidebar) walks through the geography and timing.
Sustained drops worth naming
Sexual Assault ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 29% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for January were issued from data through December 2025. 10 of 10 citywide bucket forecasts (100%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 1018[892–1140] | 987 | 3.1% | INSIDE |
| Arson | 39[20–57] | 40 | 3.3% | INSIDE |
| Burglary | 639[451–816] | 584 | 9.5% | INSIDE |
| Homicide | 19[7–30] | 18 | 5.2% | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 997[725–1258] | 1087 | 8.3% | INSIDE |
| Other Larceny | 1869[1416–2294] | 1891 | 1.2% | INSIDE |
| Robbery | 501[409–595] | 487 | 2.9% | INSIDE |
| Sexual Assault | 184[127–237] | 137 | 34.0% | INSIDE |
| Theft from Vehicle | 1470[1177–1751] | 1570 | 6.4% | INSIDE |
| Vandalism | 1675[1376–2009] | 1401 | 19.5% | INSIDE |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “January 2026 — Los Angeles,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /los-angeles/2026/january