Windsor Square vandalism rose 97% against its multi-year baseline, the strongest fresh signal in Los Angeles this briefing and the headline over a month otherwise dominated by other-larceny moves. Tarzana other-larceny had been the top-ranked signal in the prior period, and while that category remains active across multiple neighborhoods, the new bucket, vandalism, is what moved most distinctly in January 2026.
Citywide volume is down 25.8% against the prior 12 months, 106,399 incidents against 143,412 in the year before, a large gap that reflects a sustained downward trend rather than a single month's noise. The signal mix tells a more complicated story: 27 above-trend spikes sit alongside 264 below-trend signals and 230 sustained-shift readings across 114 neighborhoods. Encino and Studio City both registered other-larceny spikes, joining Tarzana at the top of the category rankings.
The other-larceny pattern across Tarzana, Encino, Studio City, and Beverlywood is the structural thread to watch. Four neighborhoods in the same category appearing in the top five in a single briefing is a concentration worth monitoring, even as the citywide direction remains sharply downward. Windsor Square vandalism is the fresh signal; whether it extends into February or remains a single-month move is the open question.
Sustained drops worth naming
Sexual Assault ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 29% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for January were issued from data through December 2025. 10 of 10 citywide bucket forecasts (100%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 1018[892–1140] | 1014 | 0.4% | INSIDE |
| Arson | 39[20–57] | 43 | 10.1% | INSIDE |
| Burglary | 639[451–816] | 598 | 6.9% | INSIDE |
| Homicide | 19[7–30] | 18 | 5.2% | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 997[725–1258] | 1108 | 10.0% | INSIDE |
| Other Larceny | 1869[1416–2294] | 1912 | 2.3% | INSIDE |
| Robbery | 501[409–595] | 499 | 0.5% | INSIDE |
| Sexual Assault | 184[127–237] | 149 | 23.2% | INSIDE |
| Theft from Vehicle | 1470[1177–1751] | 1588 | 7.4% | INSIDE |
| Vandalism | 1675[1376–2009] | 1420 | 17.9% | INSIDE |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “January 2026 — Los Angeles,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /los-angeles/2026/january