Windsor Square vandalism is the lead signal this month — a fresh spike that rises above the other-larceny pattern that dominated prior rankings. Tarzana other-larceny had been the citywide lead category, but this briefing's most distinctive move is a different bucket in a different neighborhood, making Windsor Square vandalism the headline.
Citywide volume is down 25.8% against the prior 12 months — 106,399 incidents against 143,414 in the year before. The signal mix tilts heavily toward declines: 264 below-trend signals and 230 sustained-shift signals against 27 fresh spikes. Other-larceny spikes in Encino and Studio City appear alongside Tarzana in the top five, pointing to a concentrated category pattern even as the broader picture is one of falling volume.
The other-larceny category has now appeared as the top-ranked bucket across multiple neighborhoods, with Tarzana, Encino, Studio City, and Beverlywood all registering spikes this month. Windsor Square vandalism is the one category break in that run. With 114 neighborhoods registering signals and 530 total, the structural volume decline holds — but the concentration of other-larceny spikes across several neighborhoods is the pattern to watch in February.
Sustained drops worth naming
Sexual Assault ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 29% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for January were issued from data through December 2025. 10 of 10 citywide bucket forecasts (100%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 1018[892–1140] | 1014 | 0.4% | INSIDE |
| Arson | 39[20–57] | 43 | 10.1% | INSIDE |
| Burglary | 639[451–816] | 598 | 6.9% | INSIDE |
| Homicide | 19[7–30] | 18 | 5.2% | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 997[725–1258] | 1108 | 10.0% | INSIDE |
| Other Larceny | 1869[1416–2294] | 1912 | 2.3% | INSIDE |
| Robbery | 501[409–595] | 499 | 0.5% | INSIDE |
| Sexual Assault | 184[127–237] | 149 | 23.2% | INSIDE |
| Theft from Vehicle | 1470[1177–1751] | 1588 | 7.4% | INSIDE |
| Vandalism | 1675[1376–2009] | 1420 | 17.9% | INSIDE |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “January 2026 — Los Angeles,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /los-angeles/2026/january