Encino Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Encino is a southern San Fernando Valley neighborhood between the Santa Monica Mountains and the 101 freeway, organized around Ventura Boulevard. Anchored by the Encino Reservoir, the Sepulveda Basin recreation area, and Los Encinos State Historic Park.
Six categories moved in Encino this March — four as sustained structural shifts and two as single-month below-trend signals. The dominant story is a broad property crime retreat: burglary, theft from vehicle, vandalism, and motor vehicle theft are all running well below their prior-year levels, a pattern that holds across both the recent one-month signals and the multi-year sustained shifts.
Theft from vehicle is the sharpest mover: 185 incidents over the current 12 months against a baseline mean of 359.94 — a sustained reduction that now accounts for a 37.5% year-over-year decline. Motor vehicle theft is also running below trend, down 14.2% year-over-year to 97 incidents. Burglary shows the largest structural gap of any category, down 40.8% against the prior 12 months (151 vs. 255). Other larceny is the one counter-move — up 27.0% year-over-year to 414 incidents — and is the category to watch against this otherwise broad downward trend in property crime.
Notable signals 2
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 185 incidents — about 49% below the 360 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 97 incidents — about 37% below the 153 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 151, down 41% from 255 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 185, down 38% from 296 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 234, down 33% from 351 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Other Larceny is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 414, up 27% from 326 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Encino compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
Mid-Wilshire
184 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Encino's 185.
Open page →Vermont Square
186 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Encino's 185.
Open page →Broadway-Manchester
183 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Encino's 185.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Encino, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.