Other larceny rose across Denver in May 2026, with Mar Lee registering the sharpest single-neighborhood move of the month. The same category tops all five positions in the rankings — Mar Lee, Globeville, Lowry Field, Civic Center, and Hale all posted fresh spikes — making other larceny the structural story of this briefing, not a single-neighborhood event. This is the first month Mar Lee has topped the citywide rankings.
Citywide volume is down 9.3% against the prior 12 months, 39,902 incidents against 44,007 the year before. That decline is the backdrop for a month with an unusually broad signal count: 176 total across 78 neighborhoods. The mix skews downward — 80 below-trend signals and 60 sustained-shift signals — but 17 spikes cut against that trend, concentrated in other larceny.
The dominant pattern this month is a category-wide move rather than isolated neighborhood noise. Other larceny has not been the citywide lead category in prior briefings, so this is a new development against a longer arc of declining overall volume. Whether the category holds at these levels or retreats is the question to track in June.
Sustained drops worth naming
Motor Vehicle Theft ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 35% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for May were issued from data through April 2026. 9 of 9 citywide bucket forecasts (100%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 218[194–241] | 208 | 4.8% | INSIDE |
| Arson | 12[5–21] | 7 | 75.4% | INSIDE |
| Burglary | 346[266–415] | 292 | 18.4% | INSIDE |
| Homicide | 2[0–6] | 4 | 39.6% | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 285[154–410] | 378 | 24.6% | INSIDE |
| Other Larceny | 1014[931–1097] | 1077 | 5.9% | INSIDE |
| Robbery | 74[52–93] | 71 | 3.5% | INSIDE |
| Theft from Vehicle | 551[352–769] | 586 | 6.0% | INSIDE |
| Vandalism | 649[568–725] | 605 | 7.3% | INSIDE |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “May 2026 — Denver,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /denver/2026/may