Other larceny rose sharply across Denver in May 2026, with Mar Lee registering the strongest single signal of the month. Every neighborhood in the top five this briefing shows the same category moving in the same direction — Mar Lee, Globeville, Lowry Field, Civic Center, and Hale all logged above-trend other-larceny activity. This is the first month Mar Lee has topped the rankings.
Citywide volume is down 9.2% against the prior 12 months — 39,954 incidents against 44,007 the year before. The overall count continues to fall, but the signal mix tells a more complicated story: 17 spikes and 80 below-trend signals across 78 neighborhoods, with 60 sustained-shift signals indicating that some of these moves have been building over multiple months. The other-larceny pattern in Globeville and Civic Center stands out as part of a broader category-level shift, not isolated neighborhood noise.
The structural decline in Denver's overall crime volume holds, but the concentration of other-larceny signals across unrelated neighborhoods — from Mar Lee to Lowry Field — is a pattern worth tracking in the June briefing. Whether this reflects a category-wide shift or a noisy month depends on whether these signals persist. The 18 zero-event signals this month are a counterpoint: a number of categories went quiet in neighborhoods where they had previously been active.
Sustained drops worth naming
Motor Vehicle Theft ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 35% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for May were issued from data through April 2026. 9 of 9 citywide bucket forecasts (100%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 218[194–241] | 209 | 4.3% | INSIDE |
| Arson | 12[5–21] | 7 | 75.4% | INSIDE |
| Burglary | 346[266–415] | 303 | 14.1% | INSIDE |
| Homicide | 2[0–6] | 4 | 39.6% | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 285[154–410] | 382 | 25.4% | INSIDE |
| Other Larceny | 1014[931–1097] | 1094 | 7.3% | INSIDE |
| Robbery | 74[52–93] | 71 | 3.5% | INSIDE |
| Theft from Vehicle | 551[352–769] | 590 | 6.6% | INSIDE |
| Vandalism | 649[568–725] | 610 | 6.4% | INSIDE |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “May 2026 — Denver,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /denver/2026/may