Civic Center vandalism is the lead signal this month — a sharp move above its multi-year baseline, the most prominent fresh category in June 2026. Other larceny has been the dominant backdrop, but that category has been driving the citywide rankings for the past month already. The vandalism shift in Civic Center is the new development worth tracking.
Citywide volume is down 8.5% against the prior 12 months — 39,904 incidents against 43,600. The signal mix is weighted toward declines: 75 below-trend signals and 51 sustained-shift signals against 18 fresh spikes. Other larceny is the recurring theme across neighborhoods; Mar Lee, Globeville, and Lowry Field all registered spikes in that category, appearing alongside Civic Center in the top five.
Other larceny's breadth across multiple neighborhoods this month makes it a structural story rather than an isolated one — the same category is showing above-baseline readings across at least four tracked neighborhoods simultaneously. The Civic Center vandalism move is the freshest signal, but the broader picture is a citywide other-larceny pattern that the next several months will clarify as either a sustained shift or a short-term cluster.
Sustained drops worth naming
Motor Vehicle Theft ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 32% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for June were issued from data through May 2026. 8 of 9 citywide bucket forecasts (89%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 225[201–249] | 247 | 8.9% | INSIDE |
| Arson | 7[0–15] | 12 | 44.7% | INSIDE |
| Burglary | 347[264–420] | 335 | 3.5% | INSIDE |
| Homicide | 2[0–6] | 3 | 20.3% | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 286[159–418] | 385 | 25.7% | INSIDE |
| Other Larceny | 1089[998–1174] | 991 | 9.9% | MISS |
| Robbery | 82[64–102] | 90 | 8.5% | INSIDE |
| Theft from Vehicle | 588[388–804] | 593 | 0.8% | INSIDE |
| Vandalism | 570[479–665] | 595 | 4.2% | INSIDE |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “June 2026 — Denver,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /denver/2026/june