Lowry Field Crime Rate Trends — Denver
Lowry Field is a master-planned mixed-use neighborhood in east Denver, built on the footprint of the former Lowry Air Force Base (closed 1994). Today it's a walkable mix of single-family homes, townhouses, retail at Lowry Town Center, and the Wings Over the Rockies Air & Space Museum.
Three categories moved in Lowry Field this June — one spike, one drop, and one sustained shift — and they tell a split story. Other larceny is the dominant signal, appearing twice in the top three: a single-month spike and a multi-month structural increase running in parallel. Theft from vehicle moved the other direction, running below trend for the month.
The sustained shift in other larceny carries the most weight here. The trailing 12-month total of 184 incidents compares to a baseline mean of 122.3 — a 47.2% increase against the prior 12-month period, up from 125. Theft from vehicle, by contrast, is down 26.0% over the same window (71 incidents vs. 96), and the rest of the tracked categories — robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, motor vehicle theft, and vandalism — are all running below their prior-year levels without crossing any threshold this month.
Notable signals 2
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 184 incidents — about 50% above the 122 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 71 incidents — about 60% below the 180 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 184, up 47% from 125 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through June 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Lowry Field compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Civic Center
175 incidents over the past 12 months — 9 below Lowry Field's 184.
Open page →Hampden
175 incidents over the past 12 months — 9 below Lowry Field's 184.
Open page →Virginia Village
173 incidents over the past 12 months — 11 below Lowry Field's 184.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
Lowry Fielddoesn't have enough spike history in any single category for a stable spillover rate yet (we want at least 5 events). The table below lists what we have.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Other larceny | 2 | — too few |
Each row shows Lowry Field's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 5 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Denver); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Lowry Field, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.