Lowry Field Crime Rate Trends — Denver
Lowry Field is a master-planned mixed-use neighborhood in east Denver, built on the footprint of the former Lowry Air Force Base (closed 1994). Today it's a walkable mix of single-family homes, townhouses, retail at Lowry Town Center, and the Wings Over the Rockies Air & Space Museum.
Three categories moved in Lowry Field this April — one spike, one drop, and one sustained shift — pulling in different directions across the property-crime mix. The clearest structural story is other larceny, which combines a single-month spike with a multi-month sustained shift, signaling that the recent rise is not just noise.
Other larceny is up 35.3% over the prior 12 months — 180 incidents against a baseline of 133 — and the 12-month total of 180 sits well above the multi-year mean of 122.54, making this the most persistent move in the neighborhood. Theft from vehicle ran the other direction, down 31.5% year-over-year (74 incidents vs. 108), a meaningful offset on the property-crime side. Burglary and motor vehicle theft also trended lower over the trailing 12 months, down 25.0% and 23.5% respectively, but neither crossed the signal threshold this month.
Notable signals 2
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 180 incidents — about 47% above the 123 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 74 incidents — about 60% below the 183 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 180, up 35% from 133 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Lowry Field compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Mar Lee
181 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Lowry Field's 180.
Open page →Montbello
186 incidents over the past 12 months — 6 above Lowry Field's 180.
Open page →Hampden
171 incidents over the past 12 months — 9 below Lowry Field's 180.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
When Lowry Field has spiked other larceny historically (8 events on record), an adjacent neighborhood spiked the same category within 3 months 100% of the time. The strongest-travelling categories sit at the top of the table.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Other larceny | 8 | 100% |
Each row shows Lowry Field's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 5 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Denver); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Lowry Field, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.