Globeville Crime Rate Trends — Denver
Globeville is a north-Denver neighborhood between Interstate 25 and the South Platte, named for the long-since-demolished Globe Smelting & Refining Works. The neighborhood is bisected by I-70 and the railyard, with a small but historic residential pocket of bungalows and immigrant-era cottages bordered by heavy industry.
April 2026 brought two signals in Globeville, both concentrated in a single category: other larceny generated both a one-month spike and a sustained multi-month structural shift, making it the clearest story in the neighborhood this month. Every other tracked category — burglary, theft from vehicle, motor vehicle theft, robbery, aggravated assault, vandalism, arson — ran without a signal.
Other larceny has moved sharply over the trailing 12 months: 124 incidents against a prior-year total of 79, a 57.0% year-over-year increase. The sustained-shift signal indicates this isn't a single noisy month — the gap between the current 12-month window and the 12 before has been wide enough to register as a structural change. Motor vehicle theft moved in the opposite direction over the same window, down 26.5% to 83 incidents, and robbery also fell, from 12 to 9 (down 25.0%), but neither crossed the signal threshold this month.
Notable signals 1
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 124 incidents — about 54% above the 81 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 124, up 57% from 79 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Globeville compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Montclair
123 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Globeville's 124.
Open page →West Highland
127 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Globeville's 124.
Open page →Hale
129 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 above Globeville's 124.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
When Globeville has spiked other larceny historically (11 events on record), an adjacent neighborhood spiked the same category within 3 months 36.4% of the time. The strongest-travelling categories sit at the top of the table.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Other larceny | 11 | 36.4% |
Each row shows Globeville's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 5 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Denver); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Globeville, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.