Hale Crime Rate Trends — Denver
Hale is a small east-central residential neighborhood between Colorado Boulevard and Monaco Parkway, just south of East Colfax. A walkable grid of pre-war and mid-century homes anchored by the historic 9th + Colorado mixed-use redevelopment on its southwest corner.
Five tracked signals shaped August 2026 in Hale: one spike, one single-month drop, and three sustained shifts. The dominant story is structural, not reactive. Three categories are running on multi-month trajectories that diverge sharply from their prior-year patterns, and the breadth of that movement makes this a more consequential month than the raw count implies.
Other larceny is the sharpest mover, up 62.4% over the prior 12 months, 177 incidents against 109. Burglary runs in the opposite direction, down 47.6% year-over-year (33 incidents vs. 63), and registers both a single-month below-trend signal and a sustained multi-month shift, meaning the decline has been consistent, not a one-month anomaly. Vandalism and theft from vehicle also belong to the sustained-shift group, down 41.4% and 26.9% respectively over the trailing 12 months, reinforcing a broad property-crime decline that makes the other-larceny rise stand out as the one clear counter-trend in Hale this month.
Notable signals 2
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 177 incidents — about 86% above the 95 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 33 incidents — about 48% below the 63 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 177, up 62% from 109 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 65, down 41% from 111 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 33, down 48% from 63 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Hale compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Hampden
178 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Hale's 177.
Open page →Cory - Merrill
179 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Hale's 177.
Open page →Civic Center
180 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Hale's 177.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
Haledoesn't have enough spike history in any single category for a stable spillover rate yet (we want at least 5 events). The table below lists what we have.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Other larceny | 1 | — too few |
Each row shows Hale's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 6 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Denver); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Hale, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.