Denver Crime Rate — March 2026

Mar Lee other-larceny is the sharpest single-neighborhood signal in Denver this month, registering the highest anomaly score in the top five. The same category dominates the rankings: Globeville, Lowry Field, and University Hills all show other-larceny spikes in the same briefing period, making this less a neighborhood story than a category-wide move worth tracking.

Citywide volume is down 8.6% against the prior 12 months — 40,246 incidents against 44,056. The mix is weighted toward declines: 87 below-trend signals and 58 sustained-shift signals against 18 spikes across 78 neighborhoods. Congress Park aggravated assault is the only non-larceny entry in the top five, a lone violent-crime signal in an otherwise property-heavy month.

This is the first month the Mar Lee × other-larceny combination has held the lead position, so there is no prior streak to anchor against. Whether the other-larceny cluster across four neighborhoods reflects a sustained shift or a single-month move is an open question; the broader citywide decline holds, and the structural downward trend in Denver volume that has run through the prior 12 months remains in place.

Sustained drops worth naming

Motor Vehicle Theft ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 35% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.

How last month's forecasts performed

Forecasts for March were issued from data through February 2026. 9 of 9 citywide bucket forecasts (100%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.

Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.