Congress Park Crime Rate Trends — Denver
Congress Park is a residential neighborhood just east of Cheesman Park, organized around the namesake park between East 6th and East Colfax. A walkable grid of bungalows and pre-war apartments anchored by the East Colfax commercial strip on its north edge.
Three categories moved in Congress Park in April 2026 — one fresh spike and two structural shifts pulling in opposite directions. Aggravated assault is the loudest signal, but the sustained moves in other larceny and motor vehicle theft suggest the neighborhood's property crime mix is reshaping at a longer timescale.
Aggravated assault reached 33 incidents over the trailing 12 months against a baseline of 19.49 — a 65.0% increase over the prior 12-month period. Other larceny has risen 43.6% year-over-year (145 vs. 101), also a sustained structural shift, not a one-month anomaly. Running the other way, motor vehicle theft is down 41.2% to 47 incidents from 80 — also a multi-month structural change. The remaining categories, including burglary and theft from vehicle, were within their expected ranges this month.
Notable signals 1
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 33 incidents — about 69% above the 19 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 47, down 41% from 80 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Other Larceny is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 145, up 44% from 101 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Congress Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month aggravated assault volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable aggravated assault levels.”
Athmar Park
33 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Congress Park's 33.
Open page →College View - South Platte
37 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 above Congress Park's 33.
Open page →Kennedy
29 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 below Congress Park's 33.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
When Congress Park has spiked burglary historically (8 events on record), an adjacent neighborhood spiked the same category within 3 months 75% of the time. The strongest-travelling categories sit at the top of the table.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Burglary | 8 | 75% |
| Aggravated assault | 8 | 75% |
| Vandalism | 7 | 57.1% |
| Other larceny | 2 | — too few |
Each row shows Congress Park's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 8 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Denver); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Congress Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.