Congress Park aggravated assault is the headline this month — a sharp spike that stands out as the most extreme single-category move in the February 2026 Denver briefing. Mar Lee other-larceny has been the citywide lead category and remains active in the top rankings, but the fresh signal this briefing is the assault move in Congress Park, which carries the strongest magnitude of any tracked shift this period.
Citywide volume is down 9.0% against the prior 12 months — 40,354 incidents against 44,335. The mix leans heavily toward declines: 86 below-trend signals and 61 sustained-shift signals, against 17 fresh spikes and 17 zero-event signals across 78 neighborhoods. Other-larceny spikes are distributed across multiple neighborhoods — Globeville and University Hills both appear in the top five alongside Mar Lee — pointing to a category-wide move rather than a single isolated neighborhood.
The Mar Lee other-larceny pattern has one month in the top rankings, so it is not yet a long-running structural story. Congress Park aggravated assault is new this briefing. With 181 total signals and a broad base of neighborhoods registering movement, February is an active month against a declining citywide baseline — whether the assault move in Congress Park extends into March or stays isolated is the clearest thing to track in the next briefing.
Sustained drops worth naming
Motor Vehicle Theft ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 35% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for February were issued from data through January 2026. 8 of 9 citywide bucket forecasts (89%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 163[138–188] | 163 | 0.0% | INSIDE |
| Arson | 13[4–21] | 17 | 26.6% | INSIDE |
| Burglary | 278[196–357] | 292 | 4.9% | INSIDE |
| Homicide | 1[0–4] | 2 | 59.6% | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 240[118–355] | 364 | 34.1% | MISS |
| Other Larceny | 904[823–989] | 911 | 0.8% | INSIDE |
| Robbery | 61[39–81] | 65 | 7.0% | INSIDE |
| Theft from Vehicle | 449[230–650] | 589 | 23.8% | INSIDE |
| Vandalism | 473[393–554] | 505 | 6.3% | INSIDE |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “February 2026 — Denver,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /denver/2026/february