Other larceny rose sharply across Denver this month, with Mar Lee registering the strongest single-neighborhood signal in July 2026. All five top-ranked anomalies this month are the same category — other larceny — across five separate neighborhoods, making this a category-level story rather than an isolated local one. There is no recurring lead from prior months to displace; this is the first month other larceny has topped the Denver rankings.
Citywide volume is down 8.5% against the prior 12 months — 39,571 incidents against 43,228 — so the broader trajectory remains downward even as other larceny moves in the opposite direction. The signal mix includes 15 spikes and 72 below-trend signals across 78 neighborhoods. Hale and Civic Center both appear alongside Mar Lee in the top five, all showing the same other-larceny move.
The structural question for August is whether the other larceny pattern holds or contracts. With five neighborhoods registering the same category signal simultaneously, the breadth is unusual. The overall decline in Denver volume is real and sustained, but the concentration of fresh spikes in a single category is worth tracking into next month before drawing conclusions about direction.
Sustained drops worth naming
Motor Vehicle Theft ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 32% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for July were issued from data through June 2026. 7 of 9 citywide bucket forecasts (78%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 261[239–286] | 219 | 19.0% | MISS |
| Arson | 9[1–18] | 10 | 6.7% | INSIDE |
| Burglary | 371[294–441] | 348 | 6.7% | INSIDE |
| Homicide | 5[1–9] | 7 | 30.5% | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 276[140–416] | 379 | 27.3% | INSIDE |
| Other Larceny | 1162[1068–1251] | 1047 | 11.0% | MISS |
| Robbery | 101[81–119] | 105 | 4.1% | INSIDE |
| Theft from Vehicle | 633[443–834] | 628 | 0.8% | INSIDE |
| Vandalism | 649[568–728] | 592 | 9.6% | INSIDE |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “July 2026 — Denver,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /denver/2026/july