Ruby Hill Crime Rate Trends — Denver
Ruby Hill is a southwest neighborhood between Federal Boulevard and the South Platte, organized around Ruby Hill Park. The park itself is one of Denver's most popular sledding hills in winter and a summer concert venue; the surrounding streets are mid-century single-family residential.
Three categories moved in Ruby Hill this April — one spike, one single-month drop, and one sustained structural shift. The shape is mixed: other larceny pushed above trend at the same time motor vehicle theft continued a longer-term decline, pulling in opposite directions across property crime.
Other larceny is the sharpest signal, with 66 incidents in the current 12 months against a baseline mean of 50.44 — up 24.5% versus the prior year. Motor vehicle theft moved the other way on both timescales: a single-month below-trend signal and a sustained structural shift downward, with the 12-month total falling to 49 from 82 the year before, a 40.2% reduction. Robbery also fell, down 33.3% year-over-year (8 incidents vs. 12), though that category did not register a tracked signal this month.
Notable signals 2
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 66 incidents — about 31% above the 50 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 49 incidents — about 58% below the 116 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 49, down 40% from 82 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Ruby Hill compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Cole
66 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Ruby Hill's 66.
Open page →South Park Hill
66 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Ruby Hill's 66.
Open page →Goldsmith
62 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 below Ruby Hill's 66.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
When Ruby Hill has spiked other larceny historically (7 events on record), an adjacent neighborhood spiked the same category within 3 months 100% of the time. The strongest-travelling categories sit at the top of the table.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Other larceny | 7 | 100% |
Each row shows Ruby Hill's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 7 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Denver); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Ruby Hill, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.