Overland Crime Rate Trends — Denver
Overland is a south-central Denver neighborhood between Broadway and the South Platte River, organized around Overland Park and the Overland Park Golf Course. A mix of mid-century single-family residential and a long industrial corridor along the railroad tracks at the river.
Three categories moved in Overland this April — one spike and two drops. The month's split character stands out: other larceny ran above trend while motor vehicle theft and theft from vehicle both ran below it, pulling the overall picture in opposite directions.
Other larceny is the strongest signal. The trailing 12-month total reached 115 incidents against a baseline of 74.32, and up 18.6% against the prior 12 months. Motor vehicle theft moved the other direction — down 25.8% year-over-year, 49 incidents vs. 66 in the prior period — and theft from vehicle dropped 20.2%, from 94 to 75. Burglary also fell on the 12-month view, down 22.1%, though it did not register as a discrete signal this month. The two-direction pattern makes this a mixed month, not a clean trend in either direction.
Notable signals 3
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 115 incidents — about 55% above the 74 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 49 incidents — about 45% below the 89 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 75 incidents — about 38% below the 122 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Overland compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Auraria
117 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Overland's 115.
Open page →University Park
108 incidents over the past 12 months — 7 below Overland's 115.
Open page →Montclair
123 incidents over the past 12 months — 8 above Overland's 115.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
When Overland has spiked other larceny historically (16 events on record), an adjacent neighborhood spiked the same category within 3 months 100% of the time. The strongest-travelling categories sit at the top of the table.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Other larceny | 16 | 100% |
Each row shows Overland's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 7 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Denver); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Overland, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.