Overland Crime Rate Trends — Denver
Overland is a south-central Denver neighborhood between Broadway and the South Platte River, organized around Overland Park and the Overland Park Golf Course. A mix of mid-century single-family residential and a long industrial corridor along the railroad tracks at the river.
Four categories moved in Overland this August, a mix of one spike, two below-trend signals, and one sustained shift. The shape of the month is uneven: other larceny pushed well above its multi-year range while vehicle-related theft continued a structural decline, pulling in opposite directions across the property-crime picture.
Other larceny is the sharpest signal, with 124 incidents over the current 12 months against 106 in the prior year, a 17.0% rise, and the spike classification reflects a single-month move above trend. Theft from vehicle and motor vehicle theft are both running well below prior-year levels, down 33.0% and 40.3% respectively against the trailing 12 months. Everything else, including burglary and vandalism, was within range.
Notable signals 3
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 124 incidents — about 62% above the 77 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 40 incidents — about 54% below the 86 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 61 incidents — about 48% below the 118 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 40, down 40% from 67 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Overland compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Congress Park
124 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Overland's 124.
Open page →West Highland
125 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Overland's 124.
Open page →Cheesman Park
118 incidents over the past 12 months — 6 below Overland's 124.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
Overlanddoesn't have enough spike history in any single category for a stable spillover rate yet (we want at least 5 events). The table below lists what we have.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Other larceny | 1 | — too few |
Each row shows Overland's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 7 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Denver); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Overland, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.