City Park aggravated assault rose 79% against its multi-year baseline, the strongest fresh signal in Denver this month and the one that tops the rankings for the first time. Mar Lee other-larceny had been the lead category last month, and it remains a prominent backdrop: other-larceny spikes now appear in four of the five top-ranked signals this briefing, making the category the structural story even as aggravated assault takes the headline.
Citywide volume is down 7.6% against the prior 12 months, 39,434 incidents against 42,664. The mix of 172 signals this month runs heavily toward declines, 75 below-trend moves and 59 sustained-shift signals, but 18 spikes cut against that direction. Other-larceny is the clearest concentration among those spikes: Mar Lee, Hale, Civic Center, and East Colfax all registered above-trend moves in the same category.
The dominant question this briefing is whether other-larceny's breadth across multiple neighborhoods represents a new sustained pattern or a single noisy month. The aggravated assault move in City Park is fresh and carries no prior streak to extend. Both are worth tracking in September, but neither has the run length yet to call structural.
Sustained drops worth naming
Motor Vehicle Theft ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 32% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for August were issued from data through July 2026. 9 of 9 citywide bucket forecasts (100%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 240[217–264] | 222 | 8.3% | INSIDE |
| Arson | 11[3–19] | 7 | 56.3% | INSIDE |
| Burglary | 365[289–447] | 344 | 6.2% | INSIDE |
| Homicide | 5[2–9] | 3 | 64.9% | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 227[81–373] | 301 | 24.7% | INSIDE |
| Other Larceny | 1141[1044–1232] | 1100 | 3.7% | INSIDE |
| Robbery | 79[60–98] | 76 | 3.4% | INSIDE |
| Theft from Vehicle | 550[346–755] | 636 | 13.5% | INSIDE |
| Vandalism | 586[508–666] | 580 | 1.0% | INSIDE |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “August 2026 — Denver,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /denver/2026/august