Denver Crime Rate — January 2026

Mar Lee other-larceny registered the sharpest single-neighborhood signal in Denver this month, but the more structurally significant story is the category itself: every top-five position this briefing belongs to other-larceny spikes. Globeville, University Hills, Lowry Field, and Overland all appear alongside Mar Lee — five distinct neighborhoods, one category, all moving in the same direction at the same time.

Citywide volume is down 9.5% against the prior 12 months, 40,380 incidents against 44,639 the year before. That backdrop makes the other-larceny cluster stand out: 19 spikes across 78 neighborhoods this month, set against 94 below-trend signals and 69 sustained-shift signals. The overall direction is still down, but the larceny move cuts against it.

This is the first month other-larceny has dominated the rankings at this scale, so there is no multi-month run to anchor it yet. Whether this is a single noisy January or the start of a sustained category shift will be clearer in the February briefing. The structural citywide decline holds — but the other-larceny cluster is the one pattern to track going forward.

Sustained drops worth naming

Homicide ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 42% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.

How last month's forecasts performed

Forecasts for January were issued from data through December 2025. 9 of 9 citywide bucket forecasts (100%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.

Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.