Congress Park aggravated assault is the lead signal this month — a fresh spike, and the most statistically distinct move in Denver's December briefing. Globeville other-larceny was the top-ranked combo last month and remains an active signal, but the category rotation makes aggravated assault the new story to watch.
Citywide volume is down 9.9% against the prior 12 months, 40,563 incidents versus 45,023 the year before. The signal mix tilts heavily toward declines: 98 below-trend signals and 74 sustained-shift signals against 20 spikes across 78 neighborhoods. Other larceny is the exception — Globeville, Mar Lee, and University Hills all posted fresh spikes in the same category this month, a pattern that stands out against the broader downward trend.
The other-larceny cluster across multiple neighborhoods is one month old and doesn't yet constitute a sustained shift, but its breadth — three separate neighborhoods in the top five — makes it the pattern most worth tracking into January. The Congress Park aggravated assault move is new and isolated for now. The structural story remains a citywide decline, with 209 total signals spread across a wide base of 78 neighborhoods.
Sustained drops worth naming
Motor Vehicle Theft ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 36% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for December were issued from data through November 2025. 8 of 9 citywide bucket forecasts (89%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 204[179–228] | 180 | 13.3% | INSIDE |
| Arson | 12[3–20] | 4 | 187.2% | INSIDE |
| Burglary | 372[294–449] | 343 | 8.5% | INSIDE |
| Homicide | 1[0–5] | 0 | — | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 373[251–494] | 412 | 9.5% | INSIDE |
| Other Larceny | 1109[1021–1195] | 1009 | 9.9% | MISS |
| Robbery | 77[58–95] | 88 | 12.5% | INSIDE |
| Theft from Vehicle | 567[390–757] | 691 | 18.0% | INSIDE |
| Vandalism | 555[477–635] | 617 | 10.1% | INSIDE |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “December 2025 — Denver,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /denver/2025/december