University Hills other larceny is the lead signal for May 2025 — a sharp move above its multi-year baseline, the most pronounced single-category shift in Denver this briefing. The pattern isn't isolated to one neighborhood: Montclair and College View - South Platte show the same move, making other larceny the dominant fresh category across the top of the rankings this month.
Citywide volume is down 11.1% against the prior 12 months — 43,467 incidents against 48,884 the prior year. The signal mix is broadly tilted toward declines: 115 below-trend signals and 72 sustained-shift signals against 19 fresh spikes across 78 neighborhoods. Congress Park and South Park Hill both registered burglary spikes, adding a second category to the upper tier alongside the larceny cluster.
With no demoted lead in play, this is a genuinely fresh configuration. The other-larceny cluster across three neighborhoods is the main thread to watch — whether it persists into June or resolves as a single-month anomaly will determine whether it becomes a structural story. The broader citywide decline holds, and the signal mix otherwise reflects a continued downward trend.
Sustained drops worth naming
Motor Vehicle Theft ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 32% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for May were issued from data through April 2025. 8 of 9 citywide bucket forecasts (89%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 238[211–263] | 212 | 12.4% | INSIDE |
| Arson | 12[4–20] | 12 | 3.5% | INSIDE |
| Burglary | 392[316–473] | 357 | 9.9% | INSIDE |
| Homicide | 4[0–7] | 3 | 23.4% | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 528[395–667] | 526 | 0.3% | INSIDE |
| Other Larceny | 975[893–1052] | 924 | 5.5% | INSIDE |
| Robbery | 94[75–112] | 58 | 62.8% | MISS |
| Theft from Vehicle | 669[511–846] | 635 | 5.4% | INSIDE |
| Vandalism | 662[591–731] | 696 | 4.9% | INSIDE |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “May 2025 — Denver,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /denver/2025/may